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HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 11/6/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/6/2023 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Sort readers, I’m having some money circulation issues for the following week or so. In the event you had a profitable day on the monitor, or discovered some change beneath the sofa cushions, and will throw slightly my means, I might tremendously recognize the de-stressor. That is not a fundraising publish, so don’t go overboard!! The Tip Jar is beneath. –lambert

Chicken Music of the Day

Widespread Nightingale., Fonte Benémola, Loulé, Faro, Portugal. “Vocalização noturna.” I just like the evening bugs, too.

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“Barring Trump from workplace might convey closure for Jan. 6 riots, former officer says” [The Hill]. • Closure?!

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

Immediately is the day! Just one full 12 months to election day!

* * *

“Trump fraud trial reside updates: Former president takes the stand to testify in N.Y. authorized case” [NBC]. “As questioning continued about Trump’s properties, the previous president stated he thought a number of valuations had been ‘too excessive,’ together with of his Trump Tower triplex in 2014. Requested why the valuation was too excessive, Trump stated a dealer assessed the entire space as 30,000 sq. ft, ‘and I’ve entry to the roof, and if you add the roof, you’re not that far off.’ He stated, ‘I see the way it was carried out,’ telling the courtroom that ‘they took 10,000 per flooring’ and ‘instances three’ and didn’t take out the elevator shaft and different issues. He added, ‘There’s a disclaimer clause, so if there’s a mistake … you don’t get sued by the lawyer basic’s workplace.’ In his earlier deposition, Trump referred to a disclaimer clause within the firm’s monetary statements ‘that claims, don’t imagine the assertion, exit and do your personal work. This assertion is ‘nugatory.’ It means nothing.’ However in his late-September ruling forward of the trial, Engoron shot down Trump’s declare. ‘The clause doesn’t use the phrases ‘nugatory’ or ‘ineffective’ or ‘ignore’ or any related phrases,’ Engoron wrote. ‘It doesn’t say ‘the values herein are what I believe the properties can be price in ten or extra years.’” • OTOH, I keep in mind alert reader DCBlogger saying, a few years in the past, that Trump’s financials would take him down. OTOH, we’re taking him down on actual property valuation? I grant that New York actual property is famend for probity, however given Trump’s repute for puffery, would even a toddler of six be taken in by him? (Granted, I could also be oversimplifying advanced authorized points…. It will be irresponsible to not speculate, but when Trump goes down for this, what number of different actual property tycoons will begin feeling sketchy, particularly on this local weather? (“Use each man after his desert, and who ought to ‘scape whipping? –Hamlet, Act 2, Scene 2. Might or not it’s that the perfect final result for James could be convicting Trump for 2024, then shedding on enchantment, preserving the actual property trade? Readers?

“Trump leads Biden in 5 battleground states in New York Occasions ballot” [Just the News]. “Trump leads Biden by 10 factors in Nevada, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Arizona, 5 in Michigan and 4 in Pennsylvania, in keeping with new polls by The New York Occasions and Siena School. He’s down by 2 factors in Wisconsin. Biden carried all six of the states in 2020, however now, 59% of voters in these states say they disapprove of Biden’s job efficiency, whereas 38% say they approve. In the meantime, 71% of respondents stated Biden is ‘too outdated to be an efficient president,’ in comparison with 39% who stated the identical about Trump. Moreover, 62% of voters stated Biden doesn’t have the psychological sharpness to be an efficient president, whereas simply 35% stated he does. As to Trump’s psychological acuity, 54% of voters stated he’s sharp sufficient to be an efficient president in comparison with 44% who stated he isn’t. Greater than half of all registered voters surveyed (53%) additionally stated Biden’s insurance policies have personally harm them, whereas 51% of voters stated Trump’s insurance policies have personally helped them.” • That “personally harm them” query is fascinating. Assuming it’s not a proxy for inflation/unemployment, Joe Biden owes me 600 bucks. In the meantime, Trump abolished the silly ObamaCare mandate penalty, saving me 600 bucks. Not that I’m utterly trivial-minded. However.

* * *

“It’s very late to vary horses….” [David Axelrod, Threadreader]. “The best concern is that his largest legal responsibility is the one factor he can’t change. Amongst all of the unpredictables there may be one factor that’s certain: the age arrow solely factors in a single path. The @POTUS is justly pleased with his accomplishments…. However the stakes of miscalculation listed here are too dramatic to disregard. Solely @JoeBiden could make this determination. If he continues to run, he would be the nominee of the Democratic Occasion. What he must determine is whether or not that’s smart; whether or not it’s in HIS finest curiosity or the nation’s?

Sure, there is also threat related to altering course now, as there may be little time left for a major marketing campaign–and campaigns are how we check candidates. (Re @RonDeSantis.) However there may be plenty of management expertise within the Democratic Occasion, poised to emerge.” • Completely! Take Massive Gretch — please! (And you’ll wager Axelrod and Obama talked first; see beneath.)

“Why Biden Is Behind, and How He Might Come Again” [New York Times]. “The ballot incorporates appreciable proof that it shouldn’t essentially be daunting for Democrats to reassemble a coalition to defeat Mr. Trump, who stays each bit as unpopular as he was three years in the past. However even when Mr. Trump stays eminently beatable, the ballot additionally suggests it might nonetheless be fairly difficult for Mr. Biden himself…. The deterioration in Mr. Biden’s standing is broad, spanning nearly each demographic group, but it yields an particularly deep blow to his electoral assist amongst younger, Black and Hispanic voters, with Mr. Trump acquiring beforehand unimaginable ranges of assist with them.” • Useful chart:

Solely id, by no means class.

“Opinion: Why Democrats shouldn’t despair over regarding new polls about Biden” [CNN]. “Let’s begin with the Occasions/Siena polling that’s possible inflicting many in Biden world to achieve for a handful of antacids. It’s not simply the top-line discovering that the president is trailing in key battleground states together with Nevada, Arizona and even Michigan, the place Biden is down by 5 proportion factors to Trump in a state he received by practically 3 factors in 2020. In line with the Occasions, the multiracial coalition that powered Biden to victory is ‘fraying,’ with assist falling amongst Black and Hispanic voters. Biden is also seeing a drop in assist amongst voters beneath 30…., You could be asking then: Why not panic? There are a couple of causes. First, President Barack Obama confronted excessive disapproval scores the 12 months earlier than the 2012 election (though not as excessive as Biden’s). …. All of us get that Obama and Biden usually are not the identical candidates. However what’s instructive is that Obama received largely by the use of a superior floor sport when it comes to making certain that voters who supported him truly did solid a poll. Biden — who was Obama’s vp — is clearly properly conscious of this.” • After which in fact there are the problems: Abortion and “democracy.” However that’s not what Biden’s staff believes, a minimum of not utterly–

“Biden spent weeks of auto strike talks constructing ties to UAW chief which have but to completely repay” [Chicago Tribune]. “[E]ven as Biden’s sympathies publicly shifted towards union employees in the course of the standoff, there are few indicators that the UAW absolutely warmed to the Democratic president. Biden has but to obtain the union’s endorsement as he seeks reelection with the message that he has delivered for blue-collar employees. The UAW declined to speak about its relationship with the White Home. No ultimate determination on the endorsement is predicted to return till after contracts with the automakers are finalized [smart], which most likely will occur later this month. The connection between Fain and Biden could possibly be essential to the result of the 2024 election. Greater than 380,000 UAW members are scattered in states that embrace Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, locations the place slim margins have determined the general winner of the previous two presidential contests.”

* * *

“Nikki Haley Can’t Beat Trump” [The American Conservative]. “The strategic argument for a Haley win seems to be like this: Ron DeSantis can’t beat Donald Trump. Due to this fact, Nikki Haley should…. [Haley’s] temperament is optimistic and her overseas coverage is radically interventionist, as evidenced by her solid of each current battle, from Ukraine to Israel, as ‘a struggle between ‘good and evil.” As Haley herself stated final week in a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition, ‘It’s good to have so many Israel supporters in a single room. Lord is aware of we want extra in America proper now.’ In different phrases, Haley is the girl for the job as a result of she is a Republican of an period that the nice outdated boys in Washington would do nearly something to convey again to life. After all, pining for the Nineteen Eighties is an all-but-guaranteed technique to lose the presidential contest, as we noticed in 2008, 2012, and 2016. Regardless of the good outdated boys in Washington need, it’s not what nearly all of American folks need at the moment.”

* * *

“How Newsom’s China journey might enhance local weather change analysis — and his political profile” [The Hill]. “Newsom’s go to to China — which adopted a short cease in Israel — was the primary such journey made by an American governor in additional than 4 years and partly served to thaw tensions between the international locations, his workplace acknowledged. The journey, in keeping with Newsom’s staff, prioritized three objectives: advancing local weather motion, selling financial improvement and tourism, and strengthening cultural bonds. It additionally concerned conferences with high-level officers, together with President Xi Jinping. Newsom, who’s broadly believed to harbor presidential ambitions, avoided addressing whether or not the journey has bolstered his picture on the nationwide stage — noting in the course of the press name that these concerns weren’t a motive for the journey. However from an outsider’s perspective, Thad Kousser, a political science professor on the College of California San Diego, instructed The Hill he believes the journey provided Newsom the chance ‘to be taken significantly as a presidential contender.’ ‘The picture of you sitting subsequent to the chief of the second strongest nation on the earth elevates your picture,’ he continued.”

* * *

PA: “Why Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court docket Election Issues” [Wall Street Journal]. “Pennsylvania subsequent week will elect a brand new Justice to its state Supreme Court docket, and the race is price watching properly past Harrisburg. The profitable jurist could possibly be the tiebreaker in litigation over the state’s 2024 voting guidelines. The consequence might additionally present whether or not the top of Roe v. Wade continues to be powering Democrats to the polls…. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court docket is break up 4-2, with one emptiness and Democratic jurists within the majority. Tuesday’s election, which is able to change the late Justice Max Baer, can’t flip the partisan stability, although it could put the GOP one step nearer towards a potential takeover in 2025. For extra rapid implications, take a look at the excessive courtroom’s most up-to-date mail-ballot blunder, a 3-3 stalemate final fall that was made potential by Baer’s dying. Whoever replaces him might solid a pivotal vote. That 2022 dispute concerned whether or not to depend mail ballots with lacking dates. State regulation tells voters to ‘fill out, date and signal,’ however the argument was that tossing undated ballots would violate federal regulation. Seven days earlier than the November election, the Justices introduced they had been ‘evenly divided.’ They ordered counties to ‘segregate and protect any ballots contained in undated or incorrectly dated outer envelopes.’

That would have prompted a partisan meltdown, if a candidate shedding by a hair had begged the judiciary to depend disputed votes and provides him victory. Pennsylvania is fortunate it didn’t change into a nationwide recount circus in 2020 or 2022, however it’s nonetheless a threat for 2024.”

PA: “Are we actually going to let Pa.’s richest man purchase a state Supreme Court docket seat?” [Will Bunch, Philadelphia Inquirer]. “the actual high-stakes gamers — like Jeff Yass from the Philadelphia suburbs, whose bets that began with his school poker sport and led to a significant funding in TikTok have made him the richest man within the state — know the place the actual motion is: state courts. The facility wielded in locations just like the Pennsylvania Supreme Court docket — over vital issues like drawing congressional maps, funding colleges, punishing polluters, rewarding tax evasion, or crimping employee energy — is big. And people justices are elected right here, as in different key states…. I doubt that Yass cares a lot concerning the subject making essentially the most noise on this election — abortion rights — however I think about he cares fairly a bit about having a courtroom that received’t rule for organized labor or towards Massive Oil and Fuel. ProPublica just lately chronicled how Yass aggressively fought to decrease his taxes by an estimated $1 billion, even suing the IRS in federal courtroom. If Yass’ tax methods are ever litigated in Harrisburg, does he actually want judges “who apply the regulation as written” — or one thing else?”

VA: “Biden presents over a dozen endorsements in Virginia days earlier than election” [The Hill]. “President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris introduced practically [23 endorsements for swing-district Democrat in] Virginia legislature seats on Saturday, simply days earlier than the state is about to vote in crucial elections. Each seat of the Virginia legislature is up for grabs in 2023, with Democrats hoping to carry onto their tight state Senate margin and Republicans aiming to maintain the state Home… The election can be seen as a referendum on the management of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.), the favored governor who’s rumored to be eying a future presidential marketing campaign. The Democratic Legislative Marketing campaign Committee, the group organizing state legislature races for Democrats, was grateful for the endorsements.” • We’ll know tomorrow!

Obama Legacy

If I had been Biden, I wouldn’t need Obama muscling in:

In spite of everything, Obama gifted Biden the Presidency; who higher than The Wizard of Kalorama to place his arm round Biden, stick a shiv in his aspect, and gently urge him from the stage?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Their Prophecy of Enduring Democratic Rule Fell Aside. They Blame School Grads.” [Politico]. “As soon as upon a time, Judis and Teixeira’s The Rising Democratic Majority was hailed for having foreseen the rising minority and college-grad demographic combo that powered Barack Obama’s wins. However the political realignment that Democratic Beltway insiders simplistically took as a matter of religion by no means occurred [see NC here]. And now the pair are again with [Where Have All the Democrats Gone?, ] a e book grappling with what went improper….. What occurred? In Judis and Teixeira’s account, the twenty first century social gathering under-delivered on populist economics for working-class voters. However on the similar time, it over-indexed for the cultural fashion that has jumped from campuses into the types of professions the place expensively degreed of us predominate — together with the constellation of Washington organizations, companies and advocacy teams that assist outline a celebration’s public picture.” • I’ve all the time wished to make use of this meme:

Hey, now that Judis and Teixeira have completely flip-flopped on this, do you assume the Acela Hall will permit Thomas Frank again into the fold? Seeing as how he received it proper first with Hear, Libera! in 2016, seven years in the past? I’m guessing no, one motive being that Frank is a a lot better author. (Sadly, The place Have All of the Democrats Gone? is just not but up at Amazon, so I can’t search it for a point out of Frank.)

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Dump truck crashes into poll field close to Aurora church, sparking neighborhood issues about voting rights” [Colorado Sun]. “The questions started Oct. 27 when a totally loaded dump truck struck and broken a poll field outdoors of a church in Aurora. The truck hit the poll field so laborious that it was ripped out of the concrete pad it was bolted into. The poll field won’t get replaced earlier than Election Day, Nov. 7. ‘Is that this a coincidence that shortly after the ballots are dropped, the poll drop field will get broken and eliminated and I’m a candidate for Metropolis Council at massive, and it’s at my church with my identify on the skin of the church and you may’t inform me who hit it and you can not change it till after the election?’ stated Thomas Mayes, the pastor at Dwelling Water Christian Heart Church, the place the field was eliminated…. The poll field on the church has been an vital a part of his marketing campaign messaging. He’s acknowledged many instances that he fought laborious to have it positioned there in 2019 to encourage individuals who don’t usually vote — comparable to folks of coloration, older adults, Spanish-speaking neighborhood members and people who find themselves homeless — to take part in elections.”

“Senate Judiciary Committee stalls amid partisan firestorm over Supreme Court docket subpoenas, courtroom nominees” [Courthouse News]. “Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin introduced he would search authorization to subpoena a trio of outstanding conservative figures who Democrats say have had unethical relationships with justices of the Supreme Court docket. The committee has for months been investigating reviews that among the excessive courtroom’s jurists did not disclose high-dollar presents from rich benefactors, together with billionaire megadonors Harlan Crow and Robin Arkley, in addition to conservative authorized activist and Federalist Society founder Leonard Leo…. Graham, the panel’s rating member, rehashed an argument now acquainted amongst opponents of Democrats’ Supreme Court docket ethics inquiry: that any try to control enterprise of the courtroom would violate constitutional separation of powers.” • A transaction has two sides; I don’t see why we are able to’t regulate the “reward” giver with out regulating the recipient. Now, in the event that they subpoened Thomas, say, that might certainly be a bridge too far.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Testing and Monitoring

I apologize for the width, however that’s the one technique to get every thing on my display screen. Detecting Lengthy Covid with eye exams:

The hyperlinks to the display screen photographs, so as: [1], [2], [3], and [4].

Transmission

“Ondine Biomedical’s Steriwave nasal photodisinfection platform now used throughout Canada” [Yahoo Finance (Carla)]. “The Queen Elizabeth II Well being Sciences Centre in Halifax, affiliated with Dalhousie College, has adopted Steriwave, Ondine Biomedical’s an infection prevention methodology, to be used in orthopedic surgical procedures. This know-how is designed to cut back the chance of post-surgical infections, a crucial concern in healthcare settings. The corporate’s analysis highlights its means to fight extensively drug-resistant microbes (XDR), an alarming menace to affected person security. Ondine’s platform successfully kills these microbes, making a barrier towards antimicrobial resistance. The implementation of Steriwave is especially essential as healthcare establishments worldwide grapple with issues about antimicrobial resistance.” • True, the promoting level isn’t SARS-CoV-2, however we all know it kills that virus too.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

Bear in mind that you would be able to nonetheless submit feedback to HICPAC by 5PM at the moment!

From this morning’s Hyperlinks, here’s a remark from alert reader Kael with a pattern:

Only a reminder that you’ve got till 5pm EST to submit public feedback by e-mail the the CDC’s HICPAC relating to their draft masking steering for healthcare settings [see yesterday’s Links]. The e-mail deal with is: hicpac@cdc.gov. You’re supposed to incorporate your identify, deal with, intuitional affiliation (“involved citizen” or related is suitable).

Here’s what I despatched them:

Expensive HICPAC Members and Workers,

Public Remark – HICPAC steering on SARS-CoV2 an infection management in heath care settings

I applaud the part of your draft pointers that advocate N95 (or higher) masks in some circumstances, e.g. for rising pathogens. I’ve labored as a researcher for a lot of 12 months with medical samples from sufferers and animals with idiopathic illness and unknown virological content material. In these settings, my fellow researchers and I acknowledge that aerosol management is crucial. We all know this with none randomized trial that might expose randomly chosen co-workers to novel viruses. I’m certain that if you happen to had been working with an unidentified aerosolized virus, you’d take precautions to make sure the security of your self, co-workers and finally your neighborhood. You wouldn’t minimize corners, ignoring the stable aerosol science that our Private Protecting Gear and laboratory gear incorporates.

I’m appalled that your suggestions, as utilized to SARS-CoV2 aerosol controls, will fail to cut back SARS-CoV2 an infection in healthcare settings. Accessible COVID vaccines to not successfully cease transmission of SARS-CoV2, usually are not utilized by massive segments of the US inhabitants, and should not keep their present efficacy given the fast mutation of the virus and the undeniable fact that SARS-CoV2 persists and evolves in some sufferers for as much as 18 months.

Equally, the truth that there are pharmaceutical therapies obtainable for acute-phase COVID, is just not an affordable foundation to desert sound an infection management for this aerosol-transmitted virus. The CDC acknowledges that 19% of contaminated folks have Lengthy-COVID. Over the lengthy haul, Lengthy-COVID is more likely to be a extra vital burden on people and society as an entire than acute-phase COVID. There are not any pharmaceutical therapies obtainable for Lengthy-COVID. It has been clear for years that every SARS-CoV2 an infection carries a threat of Lengthy-COVID. This threat is just not mitigated by prior an infection, vaccination or acute-phase remedy. Therefore it’s the obligation of the healthcare neighborhood and HICPAC to cut back SARS-CoV2 transmission.

You clearly know that airborne transmission of pathogens is diminished with correct use of N95 masks. That is clear in your “prolonged air precautions” steering. Due to this fact your steering because it applies to SARS-CoV2, is clearly inadequate, and dare I say: negligent. In case your draft steering is accepted with no robust suggestion for common N95 use in healthcare settings it is going to lead to a long-term burden to the healthcare system and the well being and wellness of People.

Thanks in your consideration,

Kael Fischer, PhD.

Division of Pathology, College of Utah – College of Medication (retired)

For due diligence, I need to say, though each reader should know this: Don’t copy and paste this! Use it for inspiration.

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Case Knowledge

From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 6:

Lambert right here: Instances up, simply in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide after they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional knowledge:

In every single place!

NOTE I’m so completely satisfied to see that Biobot is again. I confess that I’ve not made a severe comparability of Biobot’s pattern units pre- and post-Verily. Nor to my data has anybody. Readers?

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 28:

Lambert right here: Flattening. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 6:

May very well be a slight lower. Ought to be up in two weeks, although! (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. October 28:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

From Walgreens, November 6:

-1.4%. However bouncing round. (It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and received examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:

Lambert right here: Slight improve. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 16:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden huge BA.2.86 look. This variant chart has not been up to date, which makes me surprise if CDC is gaming the information, and BA.2.86 is worse than we expect.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: Dunno why no updates. I’ll must drop this one, with nice reluctance; I like my sources non-CDC.

Complete: 1,181,531 – 1,181,289 = 242 (242 * 365 = 88,330 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, November 5:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity at the moment.

* * *

“Maersk chopping 10,000 jobs in face of ‘worsening market circumstances’” [Freight Waves]. “Maersk started the 12 months with 110,000 world workers. Yr so far, it has minimize 6,500 jobs, which it has not beforehand disclosed. It has now determined to chop an extra 3,500 jobs, together with 2,500 by year-end and 1,000 in 2024. The entire discount — 10,000 layoffs — will scale back world headcount by 9%. ‘This isn’t a eating regimen. This can be a reset of the baseline,’ stated [Vincent Clerc, CEO of A.P. Moller-Maersk]. Job cuts will result in restructuring prices of $350 million this 12 months (up from the $150 million steering introduced in February) adopted by $600 million in price financial savings from decrease compensation subsequent 12 months. It’s not simply job cuts. Maersk stated it’s ‘contemplating all choices to protect money.’ Capital expenditures (capex) can be slashed each this 12 months and subsequent 12 months, and share buybacks could possibly be halted subsequent 12 months.” • Hmm.

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Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 42 Concern (earlier shut: 41 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 30 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 6 at 12:23:16 PM ET

Rapture Index: Closes up two: Anti-Semitism up one, Persia (Iran) up one, and Date Settings down one [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most! • The goat sacrificers are going to defile the Al Aqsa mosque, and the Rapture Index is down? I hardly had them within the contrarian field! UPDATE I assume the indexing lags. I can’t recall a bounce of two, and if Date Settings hadn’t been down one, it could have been three!

The Gallery

A stunning Klimt:

I’m wondering if these are naiads.

Our Famously Free Press

Information of the Wired

“Science reveals how to not spill your espresso whereas strolling” [NBC]. “Espresso drinkers usually try to stroll shortly with their cups, as if they may handle to achieve their vacation spot earlier than their sloshing java waves attain a crucial peak. This methodology is scientifically flawed. It seems that the sooner you stroll, the nearer your gait involves the pure sloshing frequency of espresso. To keep away from driving the oscillations that result in a spillage, stroll slowly.”

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From:

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In the event you hate PayPal, you may e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on ship a test. Thanks!

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