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HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 11/28/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/28/2023 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Track of the Day

Northern Screamer, Ciénaga la Coroza, Córdoba, Colombia. “Duet.”

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Supremes

“Supreme Court docket to think about multi-pronged constitutional assault on SEC” [SCOTUSblog]. “The argument on Wednesday in Securities and Trade Fee v. Jarkesy will current a exceptional spectacle of three fully distinct constitutional challenges to wholly disparate attributes of the SEC. Ordinarily, the power of the justices to manage their docket would permit them to attend on every query for the event of a circuit battle and choose an appropriate case during which to resolve every challenge. However on this case a daring (I didn’t say “rogue”) panel of the U.S. Court docket of Appeals for the fifth Circuit accepted all three arguments and invalidated three elements of the SEC’s operations. To depart the choice unreviewed would power Congress to revise considerably the affected parts of the securities legal guidelines solely based mostly on the opinion of 1 divided decrease court docket panel – therefore, the Supreme Court docket’s buffet of constitutional regulation subjects on Wednesday morning…. The primary query earlier than the justices is whether or not Congress constitutionally licensed the company to adjudicate administrative proceedings that impose financial penalties. That raises a query underneath the court docket’s deeply fraught doctrine of “public rights,” which gives an exception to the Seventh Modification jury trial requirement. …. The second query is whether or not Congress can delegate to the SEC the facility to determine whether or not a case needs to be pursued as an administrative continuing or as a civil enforcement motion – that’s, inside the company or in a federal district court docket. … The third query within the case is whether or not the Structure permits Congress to provide the SEC’s administrative regulation judges safety from removing.”

“Supreme Court docket to think about ‘quadrillion-dollar query’ in main tax case” [The Hill]. “At challenge in Moore v. United States is the query of whether or not the federal authorities can tax sure forms of “unrealized” features, that are property like shares or bonds that individuals personal however from which they haven’t instantly recouped the worth, so that they don’t have direct entry to the cash that the property is price…. Even when the court docket limits the scope of its determination to the precise tax referenced within the case, generally known as the necessary repatriation tax, a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs may value $340 billion over the subsequent decade, in accordance with the Justice Division…. Critics of a blanket constitutional requirement for realization say the concept is trumped up, and it’s actually simply concerning the timing of when an asset is allowed to be taxed for accounting functions. They level to a 1940 determination in Helvering v. Horst discovering that ‘the rule that revenue isn’t taxable till realized has by no means been taken to imply that the taxpayer … can escape taxation as a result of he has not himself obtained cost of it from his obligor.’ It’s because the taxpayer ‘has absolutely loved the good thing about the financial acquire represented by his proper to obtain revenue,’ the court docket discovered. As such, the requirement was thought-about to be ‘based on administrative comfort’ and ‘not one in all exemption from taxation.’”

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“ Watch the DeSantis-Newsom Debate” [New York Times]. Moderated by Hannity. “Fox Information will host a 90-minute debate between Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, beginning at 9 p.m. Japanese time on Thursday…. Mr. DeSantis is dealing with an intensifying race as he pushes for a robust displaying in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses in January….. He’s dealing with Mr. Newsom, who has been a key ally of President Biden’s and a number one voice of the nationwide Democratic Get together. Mr. Newsom has gathered the sort of nationwide help and connections with donors that might place him in a robust place for a future presidential run…. [T]he uncommon spectacle displays the present state of the presidential marketing campaign: Mr. DeSantis has been slowly dropping momentum and wishes a jolt. Mr. Newsom has additionally been desperate to additional increase his nationwide profile, and Mr. Biden wants highly effective surrogates who can assist make the case for a second time period.” • “Spectacle.”

“The Memo: Newsom and DeSantis put together to sq. off for Fox debate” [The Hill]. “For DeSantis, it’s a uncommon alternative to command middle stage with out anybody else stealing his thunder…. Newsom, for his half, is clearly positioning himself as a nationwide determine inside the Democratic Get together. He has tamped down hypothesis that he would problem President Biden for the nomination this 12 months. However he would nonetheless be one of the crucial apparent alternate options if any occurred for the 81-year-old Biden and, even when that doesn’t occur, he has established himself as a top-tier candidate for the long run. Including an additional frisson to Thursday night’s conflict is the notion that the 2 males actually don’t like one another.” • Nicely, I really don’t like both of them, too. I assume Newsom has his speaking factors prepared, however it is going to be fascinating to see what DeSantis’s oppo staff comes up with. Additionally, “severe mishap”? Versus an unserious one?

“DeSantis v Newsom: the presidential match-up that isn’t” [The Economist]. “Image it: two of America’s strongest governors take the talk stage. One is sporting copious quantities of hair gel. The opposite might, or might not, be sporting lifted boots to seem taller…. In one other universe this might have been a prime-time debate throughout the 2024 presidential marketing campaign. As a substitute, Messrs DeSantis and Newsom will face off on Fox Information on November thirtieth for causes unclear even to the governors themselves. Throughout an interview final month in Los Angeles, your correspondent requested Mr Newsom why People ought to watch a debate between one (floundering) presidential candidate, and a governor who isn’t (presently) working for something. ‘I don’t know they need to,’ he replied merrily.”

“Is Gov. Newsom dropping political momentum as debate with Gov. DeSantis nears?” [Orlando Sentinel]. “Gavin Newsom continues to be a rising political star, however his path to nationwide prominence has gotten rocky as he heads into his debate Thursday with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. His approval ranking has sunk. He faces questions on his journey to China and the collapse of a significant freeway in downtown Los Angeles. He angered longtime labor supporters by vetoing two payments they needed, together with one that might have supplied strike advantages to jobless employees. When the concept of a Newsom-DeSantis debate was floated earlier this 12 months, it promised an unfiltered have a look at two political up-and-comers who might sometime compete for the presidency. It nonetheless has that potential, however the stars usually are not as shiny.”

* * *

“Not Solely Can Trump Win, Proper Now He’s the Favourite To Win” [Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics]. “As of this writing, Trump leads Biden by 2.6 proportion factors nationally within the RealClearPolitics Common. That is Trump’s largest lead within the RCP common so far. Not for 2024, thoughts you. Ever. Let’s put this in perspective. In 2016, Trump led Hillary Clinton for all of 5 days within the nationwide RCP Common, every of these days within the quick aftermath of the Republican conference. He led in 29 polls taken over the course of the whole marketing campaign, 10 of that are recorded within the RCP averages as Los Angeles Occasions/USC monitoring polls. In 2020, Trump by no means led Biden within the nationwide RCP Common. He briefly closed to inside 4 factors in early January of 2020, however that’s it. He led in 5 polls all cycle. So, counting the L.A. Occasions tracker as a single ballot, Trump led in a complete of 24 nationwide polls. This cycle? He’s led in that many since mid-September. He’s led in additional polls prior to now three weeks than he did towards Biden in all of 2019-2020. It’s possible you’ll be pondering that we don’t elect our president through the favored vote, however relatively accomplish that by way of the Electoral School. That is, after all, true. It additionally makes Trump’s present place within the polls all of the extra putting. In any case, Trump has persistently outperformed his polling, and his Electoral School positioning has persistently been stronger than his nationwide positioning.” • Examine the submit for state knowledge: MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ, GA, OH.

“The ultimate countdown: Trump holds commanding lead over DeSantis, Haley, with 50 days till Iowa caucuses” [FOX]. “Whereas Trump has held practically 20 occasions in Iowa this 12 months, the Florida governor has made roughly 130 stops, with a lot of these hosted by the DeSantis-aligned tremendous PAC By no means Again Down. Moreover, the tremendous PAC has spent hundreds of thousands to place collectively a formidable floor recreation in Iowa. DeSantis additionally grabbed the high-profile endorsement earlier this month of Gov. Kim Reynolds, who stays extremely popular with Iowa Republicans. Final week, he received the backing of Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Household Chief, an influential social conservative group in a state the place evangelical voters play an outsized position in Republican politics…. Nonetheless, what as soon as gave the impression to be a two-candidate combat for the GOP nomination is now a three-way battle.. Haley, who has loved momentum within the polls in current months, thanks partly to well-received performances within the first three GOP presidential main debates, has leapfrogged DeSantis for second place in New Hampshire – which holds the primary main and votes second within the Republican nominating schedule – and her dwelling state – which holds the primary southern contest. Now, she goals to make a combat of it in Iowa, the place she is pulling even with DeSantis in among the newest polls.” • Fifty buying days till Iowa….

IA: “High evangelical says ‘Iowa will stand up’ towards Trump” [The Hill]. • After Trump’s judges nuked Roe. Why, the ingratitude! One would, in any case, anticipate a very good Christian to remain purchased….

* * *

“Buying and selling on the household title: Don’t neglect about Frank Biden” [Washington Times]. “What’s in a reputation? That will depend on who you ask – some names are extra priceless than others. Home Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer is asking President Biden whether or not his is price $200,000 (or was in 2018, earlier than inflation spiked). That was the quantity of a verify the president’s brother James wrote to Joe ostensibly as a ‘mortgage compensation.’ Mr. Comer desires to know the small print as a result of there’s no report of such a mortgage elsewhere within the president’s paperwork. It looks as if a worthy query, given the allegations of Hunter Biden repeatedly utilizing the household title to land profitable sinecures at Ukrainian and Chinese language power corporations – ‘10% for the Large Purchase’ and all that. There aren’t too many households with $200,000 checks circulating, not to mention life-long public servants ready to make that sort of mortgage. Whereas he’s at it, Chairman Comer shouldn’t neglect the opposite Biden brother. Frank Biden is a serial name-trader, going again at the least to when he was a Florida actual property developer, and Joe was U.S. vp. Since 2018, Frank has been a non-attorney senior adviser on the Berman Legislation Group, a Boca Raton, Florida regulation agency. On Jan. 20, 2021, the day of his brother’s presidential inauguration, Frank positioned an advert in Florida’s Day by day Enterprise Evaluate. As CNBC reported on the time, ‘The advert focuses on a lawsuit the agency is main towards a bunch of Florida sugar cane corporations. It contains a picture of Frank Biden, together with quotes relating to his relationship with the incoming president and the household title.’” • Simply tacky. The sheer grime and pettiness of the grift.

* * *

“Dean Phillips says ‘it’s delusional’ to assume Biden can beat Trump” [The Hill]. “Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) on Saturday criticized President Biden for his current ballot numbers, arguing it’s “delusional” to assume he may overtake former President Trump in a rematch. ‘As a member of Home Democratic Management, I supported and promoted the Biden agenda, Phillips wrote Saturday on X, the platform previously generally known as Twitter. ‘I campaigned for him, voted for him, and respect him.’ ‘However how can anybody learn this and conclude he’s positioned to defeat Donald Trump?’ he added, sharing an article from Politico centered on Biden’s fall in approval rankings. ‘It’s delusional.’ The Politico evaluation piece famous that in survey outcomes from 13 separate pollsters in November alone, the president’s place had fallen in all however two of them.” • Extra from Phillips:

Oh, Dean. It’s gonna take greater than that:


* * *

“Manchin 2024 chatter places highlight on No Labels” [The Hill]. “The efforts of No Labels to prepare a third-party ticket in 2024 bought a possible enhance with Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) flirtation with a possible presidential bid…. Manchin’s speak of a potential White Home run has put the highlight on No Labels, a self-described “nationwide motion of commonsense People” that’s seen as maybe the probably outlet for a third-party candidate to get on the poll subsequent 12 months. The senator earlier this 12 months attended a No Labels city corridor occasion in New Hampshire together with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R).” Now comes the essential half: “Whereas Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West have individually launched unbiased presidential bids, it’s unclear whether or not they are going to get on the poll in sufficient states to considerably have an effect on the 2024 race. No Labels, in the meantime, has already gained poll entry in 12 states. Clancy mentioned the group is on observe to be on the poll or lively in 27 states by the top of the 12 months. The objective is to be on the poll in 34 states by the spring, and Clancy famous the remaining 16 both require a named candidate to achieve entry or require much less administrative work to get on the poll and could possibly be dealt with by an eventual ticket. No Labels expects to determine ‘someday after March 15’ about whether or not to supply its poll line to a ticket and who could be on a theoretical lineup.” • Manchin working for President is the stupidest concept I’ve heard in a very long time, so I suppose the possibilities are good it is going to occur. (I do assume that there are many individuals who seeing “No Labels” on the poll would vote for that get together on the title alone, a intelligent tactic.

* * *

“Charles Koch’s anti-Trump group endorses Nikki Haley in Republican main” [ABC]. “[Americans for Prosperity Action, the] Koch-backed group stayed out of the 2016 and 2020 presidential cycles however has vital sources to attempt to enhance Haley’s marketing campaign, although AFP Motion is to date staying mum on how a lot it plans to spend. The group reported elevating greater than $70 million in its final public submitting, in June, with $25 million coming from Koch himself and one other $25 million from one in all his nonprofit teams… AFP Motion thinks it may make a distinction: ABC Information reviewed a number of inside memos, based mostly on the group’s polling and door-knocking operations in early states, suggesting that about 4 in 10 GOP voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say the first marketing campaign ‘hasn’t begun’ or has ‘simply began.’ AFP Motion additionally believes that three in 4 Republicans are open to a Trump various in the event that they assume that individual has a greater likelihood of successful.”

“How Haley’s Hawks Introduced Carnage to Ukraine” [The American Conservative]. “[T]he ‘accountable folks’ are decided to keep up their perches of accountability—which is to say, their energy. On the best, this implies a concerted push to fabricate enthusiasm for Nikki Haley’s problem to Donald Trump within the GOP main. A $1,000-per-ticket fundraiser for Haley on Nov. 13, beforehand unreported elsewhere, opened a revealing window onto this effort…. The host committee was a who’s who of the kinds of “accountable folks” who plunged america into two fruitless wars within the 20 years after 9/11 and/or served as employed weapons for numerous overseas regimes and firms.” • The checklist isn’t really that spectacular, since many of the above-baseline hawks are within the Biden administration (Nuland et al.).

* * *

“The Thoughts-Bending Politics of RFK Jr.’s Spoiler Marketing campaign” [Olivia Nuzzi, New York Magazine]. “At this level, all that’s clear is that nobody has any concept what’s going to occur between now and November 2024 or how to answer the risk Kennedy poses to the Biden-Trump binary. As it’s, Kennedy is in some circumstances polling not far behind both seemingly major-party nominee and in all circumstances polling properly sufficient that, have been the election held right now, his presence within the race would outline what the subsequent chapter of American historical past appears like. As he put it, ‘My intention is to spoil it for each of them.’… His supporters are ‘reasonable and considerate,’ ‘vital thinkers,’ ‘people who find themselves keen to query orthodoxy and people who find themselves fed up with ideological orthodoxy,; Kennedy instructed me. ;We have now a number of antiwar individuals who have been historically left-wing Democrats, however I’d say the main portion is de facto within the center, and so they are usually individuals who hearken to podcasts, to longform interviews, which is a type that I feel is de facto sympathetic to me.’ He added, ‘It’s like an enormous model of the Milgram experiment,’ by which he signifies that they signify the 35 % of contributors within the well-known examine who refused to press the button to zap others with deadly voltages of electrical shocks.” • Nicely price a learn.

RFK on the spooks:

Discover that Carlson, very gently, pushes again.

“Robert Kennedy Jr. counts on youth in push to get on all 50 state ballots” [Washington Times]. “Mr. Kennedy’s subsequent occasion takes place in Utah [see below] on Thursday, and his selection of location is of notice. He’ll host his rally at Sky SLC — a spacious, open-air, three-level Salt Lake Metropolis nightclub and live performance venue with a retractable glass roof, VIP suites, high-tech lighting and cutting-edge sound. The location can accommodate 1,000 folks…. ‘We have now a sturdy ballot-access staff and RFK Jr.’s title shall be on the poll in all 50 states,’ mentioned Stefanie Spear, press secretary for the Kennedy marketing campaign. ‘We have now begun signature assortment in open states and are assured Mr. Kennedy will get the 270 electoral votes he must win the White Home,’ she mentioned.”

* * *

“The philosopher-in-chief” [Deseret News]. “There’s no presidential candidate fairly like Dr. Cornel West. He’s a public thinker, not a politician; he’s extra inclined to talk of America’s challenges as ethical conundrums than as coverage failures. As a substitute of citing Washington and Jefferson on the stump, he quotes Stevie Surprise and Duke Ellington. And as a substitute of strategically launching the primary in-person rally of his marketing campaign in Pennsylvania or Georgia or another variety of 2024 swing states, West touched down in Salt Lake Metropolis Monday night time, on the eve of town’s mayoral election. The rationale, West instructed a crowd of of about 200 on the College of Utah’s pupil union, is easy: town is about to decide on its mayor by ranked selection voting for the primary time, a victory for democracy, per West’s view. He’d additionally come to endorse Michael Valentine, a 35-year-old activist dealing with off towards an incumbent, Erin Mendenhall, and one in all her predecessors, Rocky Anderson — every vying to grow to be the chief of Utah’s most progressive metropolis. It didn’t damage, both, that Utah’s comparatively lax guidelines to get on a presidential poll — you simply have to get the requisite signatures and pay a charge — bode properly for West. ‘As you all know, we’re specializing in poll entry,’ West mentioned. ‘Utah goes to be the No. 1 state in my marketing campaign that may put me on the poll.’ The gang cheered.” Additionally: “‘I feel there’s an excellent likelihood (Biden) might not even be the candidate,’ West instructed me. ‘I feel there’s a very good likelihood he’ll run out of fuel, and there’s an opportunity Trump would possibly find yourself in jail.’” • So, within the stability v. volatility dichotomy, West is a volatilist (as am I).

“Gabor Maté and Cornel West on Gaza and the Human Soul” (video) [Useful Idiots, YouTube].

“Cornel West hits Sanders for not calling for cease-fire in Gaza: ‘Fairly pathetic’” [The Hill]. • He’s not unsuitable.

* * *

Republican Funhouse

“Donations to GOP drop as worries mount concerning the get together’s funds” [WaPo]. “The Republican Get together’s funds are more and more worrisome to get together members, advisers to former president Donald Trump, and different operatives concerned within the 2024 election effort, in accordance with 10 folks acquainted with the matter. The Republican Nationwide Committee disclosed that it had $9.1 million in money readily available as of Oct. 30, the bottom quantity for the RNC in any Federal Election Fee report since February 2015. That compares with about $20 million on the similar level within the 2016 election cycle and about $61 million 4 years in the past, when Trump was within the White Home. The Democratic Nationwide Committee reported having $17.7 million as of Oct. 30, nearly twice as a lot because the Republican Get together, with one 12 months earlier than the election…. Donors haven’t minimize as many giant checks to the RNC in recent times, and the get together’s small-dollar program has additionally suffered, in accordance with folks acquainted with the get together’s funds, who, like others, spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate inside get together particulars. Some donors aren’t giving to the RNC as a result of they assume that may assist Trump, which they don’t wish to do, these folks mentioned, whereas others have mentioned they like to attend till 2024 to provide. Some have grown pissed off with the get together’s management, folks near main donors mentioned…. An RNC spokeswoman mentioned the get together has nonetheless deployed employees in 15 swing states to start out engaged on get-out-the-vote efforts and election monitoring. The get together can also be pursuing 70 lawsuits in 19 states difficult voting guidelines and is encouraging Republicans to make use of early voting and mail ballots — strategies Trump and his allies have disparaged, at the same time as RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel repeatedly touts the significance of the ‘Financial institution Your Vote’ initiative. All federal get together committees — Democratic and Republican — have seen downturns in income since 2021, a pattern that operatives often attribute to inflation and donor fatigue.” • “Donor fatigue” jogs my memory of one other catchphrase that occupies the area evaluation ought to: “immunity debt.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, actually, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“A Revisionist Historical past Of Cuomogate” [Lever News (Bob)]. “Because the pandemic started, Cuomo handed a finances that included a little-noticed provision giving nursing dwelling and hospital executives sweeping immunity from legal responsibility for ‘any hurt or damages alleged to have been sustained because of an act or omission in the middle of arranging for or offering well being care companies’ to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak…. A report by New York Legal professional Normal Letitia James (D) discovered that the immunity provisions ‘can present monetary incentives to for-profit nursing dwelling operators to place residents vulnerable to hurt by refraining from investing public funds to acquire adequate staffing to satisfy residents’ care wants, to buy adequate [personal protective equipment] for workers, and to offer efficient coaching to employees to adjust to an infection management protocols throughout pandemics and different public well being emergencies.’…. A number of days after Cuomo’s resignation, new Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) launched a report admitting that 12,000 extra New York state residents had died of COVID-19 than Cuomo’s administration had reported. A couple of quarter of these useless have been nursing dwelling residents.” • Stochastic eugenicism.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Why the ‘Ruling Class’ Want Not Rule: Nicos Poulantzas and the Marxist Principle of the State [Cosmonaut]. That is lengthy, and as Yves would say, meaty. However some severe pondering happening (although “Althusser” is a set off phrase for me). “In contrast to the feudal system, the place financial exploitation is explicitly political, the capitalist state uniquely has relative autonomy from the financial system and its dominant lessons. This relative separation between the financial and the political is conjoined with the state’s new impersonal type of legitimacy based mostly on ‘the desire of the folks’ versus the divine proper, permitting it to current itself as consultant of the ‘nation’s common pursuits’ and its legal guidelines take a seemingly ‘impartial’ character. This obscures the category relations of the depoliticized capitalist ‘financial system’ which reproduces a division between those that dwell off handbook labor, ‘mental labor,’ and house owners of capital who revenue from it. From the very begin, this division of labor (for essentially the most half) successfully excludes the overwhelming majority of powerless wage laborers from partaking within the ruling of the state, the creation of its legal guidelines, the enforcement of these legal guidelines, and the manufacturing of ideology and established ‘data’ that rationalizes this course of. These ‘goal buildings’ of the capitalist mode of manufacturing that represent what Poulantzas calls the ‘institutional materiality’ of the state shall be additional elaborated upon with different parts of his idea all through this essay. Thus, an inherent class bias is constructed into the system that’s ideologically veiled by the state’s impartial standing as a guarantor of the nation’s ‘public curiosity’ and its authorized atomization of lessons into particular person ‘residents’ with formally equal rights.” And: “Poulantzas asserts that even when there’s a shift at school composition inside state apparatuses in favor of the favored lessons, ‘the state tends in the end to re-establish the connection of forces in favor of the bourgeoisie, generally in a brand new type.’” • See, e.g., the Powell Memo.

“Why America Deserted the Best Financial system in Historical past” [Rogé Karma, The Atlantic]. “Why did America abandon the New Deal so decisively? And why did so many citizens and politicians embrace the free-market consensus that changed it?…. Three primary theories have emerged, every with its personal account of how we bought right here and what it would take to alter course. One idea holds that the story is essentially concerning the white backlash to civil-rights laws. One other pins extra blame on the Democratic Get together’s cultural elitism. And the third focuses on the position of world crises past any political get together’s management. Every idea is incomplete by itself.” Oddly, no point out of the neoliberal flip coincident with the Powell memo.” Quick ahead: “At the moment, we appear to be dwelling by way of one other inflection level in American politics—one which in some methods resembles the ’60s and ’70s. Then and now, beforehand sturdy coalitions collapsed, new points surged to the fore, and insurance policies as soon as thought-about radical grew to become mainstream. Political leaders in each events now not really feel the identical have to bow on the altar of free markets and small authorities. However, additionally just like the ’70s, the present second is outlined by a way of unresolved contestation. Though many aged concepts have misplaced their maintain, they’ve but to get replaced by a brand new financial consensus. The outdated order is crumbling, however a brand new one has but to be born.” Indirect Gramsci reference? Extra: “Since taking workplace, President Joe Biden has pursued an bold coverage agenda designed to remodel the U.S. financial system and brought overt pictures at Reagan’s legacy. ‘Milton Friedman isn’t working the present anymore,’ Biden quipped in 2020. But an financial paradigm is just as sturdy because the political coalition that backs it. In contrast to Nixon, Biden has not found out how one can cleave aside his opponents’ coalition. And in contrast to Reagan, he hasn’t stumble on the sort of grand political narrative wanted to forge a brand new one. Present polling means that he might battle to win reelection. In the meantime, the Republican Get together struggles to muster any coherent financial agenda. A handful of Republican senators, together with J. D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Josh Hawley, have embraced financial populism to a point, however they continue to be a minority inside their get together.” • This area does appear a bit extra dynamic than overseas coverage and nationwide safety. However these two fields set a low bar.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

Extra optimism:

An extended thread describing the dialog between the account (Covid-conscious) and the physician (not particularly), culminating on this:

“I feel all of us bought carried away” could also be nearly as good a proof as we’ll ever get. However I’d like to see some actual sociological investigation achieved on this. (Though HICPAC isn’t “carried away” in any respect; they’re fairly clear on their mission.

Censorship and Propaganda

“What’s behind China’s mysterious wave of childhood pneumonia?” [Nature]. “Nationwide lockdowns and different measures carried out to gradual the unfold of COVID-19 prevented seasonal pathogens from circulating, giving folks much less alternative to construct up immunity towards these microorganisms, a phenomenon generally known as ‘immunity debt’, mentioned Francois Balloux, a computational biologist at College School London, in an announcement to the UK Science Media Centre. “Since China skilled a far longer and harsher lockdown than primarily another nation on Earth, it was anticipated that these ‘lockdown exit’ waves could possibly be substantial in China,” mentioned Balloux.” • I don’t know why Nature is selling immunity debt (see, e.g.), whereas not selling immune dysregulation. Here’s a historical past of the time period, which appears to have been invented by bent pediatricians after which amplified by our famously free press–

“‘Immunity Debt’? Established 2021” [Counter-Disinformation]. A media critique tracing the time period to its origin. “That is how one unconvincing paper and the Wall Avenue Journal seeded the concept of immunity debt which was then repeated and amplified by different media sources. From being talked about in a single paper launched in Could, by mid July immunity debt was being handled as a properly established and well-known a part of scientific literature. It’s astounding that the identical individuals who dismiss so many research as missing rigour or not being legitimate as a result of there isn’t a RCT have been so fast to undertake immunity debt when you think about the time it took for covid to be accepted as being airborne, how lengthy some have continued to debate masks, and the way air filtration continues to be not accepted as a way to lowering transmission. The excessive requirements required to justify measures in colleges dissipated like a puff of smoke when an idea to argue towards measures in colleges was encountered.” • One apparent literature search:

Doubtless essentially the most studied inhabitants on earth….

Science Is Popping

“Scientists uncover receptor that blocks COVID-19 an infection” [Phys.org]. “College of Sydney scientists have found a protein within the lung that blocks SARS-CoV-2 an infection and varieties a pure protecting barrier within the human physique. This protein, the leucine-rich repeat-containing protein 15 (LRRC15), is an inbuilt receptor that binds the SARS-CoV-2 virus with out passing on the an infection. The analysis opens up a wholly new space of immunology analysis round LRRC15 and gives a promising pathway to develop new medication to stop viral an infection from coronaviruses like COVID-19 or cope with fibrosis within the lungs….. The COVID-19 virus infects people by utilizing a spike protein to connect to a selected receptor in our cells. It primarily makes use of a protein referred to as the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to enter human cells. Lung cells have excessive ranges of ACE2 receptors, which is why the COVID-19 virus usually causes extreme issues on this organ of contaminated folks. Like ACE2, LRRC15 is a receptor for coronavirus, that means the virus can bind to it. However in contrast to ACE2, LRRC15 doesn’t help an infection. It may well, nonetheless, keep on with the virus and immobilize it. Within the course of, it prevents different susceptible cells from changing into contaminated. ‘We expect it acts a bit like Velcro, molecular Velcro, in that it sticks to the spike of the virus after which pulls it away from the goal cell varieties,’ Dr. [Lipin] Bathroom mentioned.”

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona modifications therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

Yeah, however who says it was a mistake?

(To be truthful, once I take into consideration these points critically, as an analyst, I take the highlight off the people and concentrate on “institutional materiality” (neat phrase). Nonetheless, to see these ensuited, embubbled, smiling folks mouthing platitudes…. It actually frosts me.

A reader throws this over the transom:

This morning I used to be strolling by way of the check-in/ready space of the Most cancers Heart and overheard a (unmasked) check-in individual informing an older woman that she’d must put on a masks throughout all of her appointments right now as a result of ‘it hasn’t been 10 days.’ That means she’d answered sure to having had covid within the final 10 days. The older woman was standing there unmasked-amongst an enormous ready room stuffed with most cancers sufferers. It was a kind of “WTF?” moments. Nothing is smart anymore and it makes my mind damage. It’s like Alice in Wonderland, I suppose. And naturally all they hand out are dishevelled blues as a result of our administrator solely spends cash on PR and superficial issues whereas the hospital is hemorrhaging staff as a consequence of poor pay and dealing circumstances. Wastewater numbers are so excessive, and there’s nonetheless no masks mandate on the hospital. The MDs ought to all lose their licenses. They’re the worst offenders. Rant over. And the Departmental Christmas get together is Friday night time on the primary cafeteria on campus. Must be fascinating.”

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Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 27:

Lambert right here: Case counts shifting well upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional knowledge:

That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot it’s important to look ahead to backward revisions.

Variants

From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, however BA.2.86 arising quick on the surface.

From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 18:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 28:

Up. Degree-ish, however I guess hospitalization drops over the vacation weekend. Let’s wait and see. New York state as an entire appears extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. November 18:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

From Walgreens, November 27:

0.4%. Up. (It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, November 25:

Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 6:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 6:

BA.2.86 coming alongside properly.

Deaths

Complete: 1,183,455 – 1,183,396 = 59 (59 * 365 = 21,535 deaths per 12 months, right now’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of demise and illness). 

Lambert right here: This quantity is just too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I could must revert to CDC knowledge. Yech.

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Manufacturing Exercise Index within the Richmond space decreased to -5 in November 2023 from 3 in October, lacking market expectations of 1.”

* * *

Tech: “Instagram’s Algorithm Delivers Poisonous Video Combine to Adults Who Comply with Youngsters” [Wall Street Journal]. “nstagram’s Reels video service is designed to point out customers streams of quick movies on subjects the system decides will curiosity them, akin to sports activities, trend or humor. The Meta Platforms social app does the identical factor for customers its algorithm decides may need a prurient curiosity in youngsters, testing by The Wall Avenue Journal confirmed. The Journal sought to find out what Instagram’s Reels algorithm would suggest to check accounts set as much as observe solely younger gymnasts, cheerleaders and different teen and preteen influencers lively on the platform. Instagram’s system served jarring doses of salacious content material to these check accounts, together with risqué footage of kids in addition to overtly sexual grownup movies—and adverts for among the largest U.S. manufacturers. The Journal arrange the check accounts after observing that the hundreds of followers of such younger folks’s accounts usually embody giant numbers of grownup males, and that most of the accounts who adopted these youngsters additionally had demonstrated curiosity in intercourse content material associated to each youngsters and adults. The Journal additionally examined what the algorithm would suggest after its accounts adopted a few of these customers as properly, which produced more-disturbing content material interspersed with adverts. In a stream of movies really helpful by Instagram, an advert for the relationship app Bumble appeared between a video of somebody stroking the face of a life-size latex doll and a video of a younger woman with a digitally obscured face lifting up her shirt to reveal her midriff. In one other, a Pizza Hut industrial adopted a video of a person mendacity on a mattress along with his arm round what the caption mentioned was a 10-year-old woman. The Canadian Centre for Youngster Safety, a child-protection group, individually ran related assessments by itself, with related outcomes.” • One can solely wonder if there shall be quick calls by liberal Democrats for Biden and Harris to desert Threads, an X competitor owned by Meta, or whether or not there shall be a deafening silence. I’m betting on silence.

Transportation: “Failed wheel bearing brought about Kentucky derailment, CSX says” [Trains]. “CSX says a failed wheel bearing brought about the Nov. 22 derailment that led to an evacuation of residents in Livington, Ky., on Thanksgiving. In a Sunday assertion, the railroad mentioned it has accomplished the removing of all 16 railcars concerned within the incident that occurred about 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, and has accomplished removing of the spilled sulphur that caught fireplace and led to the evacuation….” • Bearings once more, eh? This time, CSX, not Norfolk Southern. CSX makes use of precision scheduled railroading too, unsurprisingly.

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At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 65 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 28 at 1:57:03 PM ET.

The Gallery

“Laborious Occasions” [The Nation]. “WPA work will be difficult to have interaction with as artwork, relatively than as historical past or propaganda: Created for government-run services and topic to state-imposed constraints, it clashes with our beliefs of creative freedom. The WPA’s tips forbade overt political content material (though it discovered its method in nonetheless) and steered artists towards legibility, prioritizing illustration over abstraction and favoring the social realist aesthetic. Artists making an attempt to get by in an period of mass unemployment had little selection however to just accept these constraints. But this context makes the person visions that shine by way of all of the extra significant. By working inside such constraints, artists like Guston found new modes of illustration and irony.”

Class Warfare

“Why wealthy folks are inclined to assume they deserve their cash” [Marketplace]. From 2021, nonetheless germane. “One experiment by psychologists on the College of California, Irvine, invited pairs of strangers to play a rigged Monopoly recreation the place a coin flip designated one participant wealthy and one poor. The wealthy gamers obtained twice as a lot cash as their opponent to start with; as they performed the sport, they bought to roll two cube as a substitute of 1 and transfer across the board twice as quick as their opponent; once they handed ‘Go,’ they collected $200 to their opponent’s $100…. In numerous methods — by way of physique language and boasting about their wealth, by smacking their items loudly towards the enjoying board and making gentle of their opponents’ misfortune — the wealthy gamers started to behave as if they deserved the great fortune that was largely a results of their fortunate roll of the cube. On the finish of the sport, when researchers requested the wealthy gamers why that they had received the sport, not one individual attributed it to luck. ‘They don’t speak concerning the flip of the coin. They speak concerning the issues that they did. They speak about their acumen, they speak about their competencies, they speak about this determination or that call,’ that contributed to their win, [psychologist Paul Piff] mentioned in an interview with host David Brancaccio. Piff mentioned the experiment reveals a basic bias that almost all people share. ‘When one thing good occurs to you, we take into consideration the issues that we did that contributed to that success,’ Piff mentioned.” • Hmm.

“Work and Office” [Gallup]. Helpful desk:

“Pluralistic: The ethical damage of getting your work enshittified” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “There’s a reputation for phenomenon during which you care a lot about your job that you simply endure poor circumstances and abuse: it’s referred to as ‘vocational awe,’ as coined by Fobazi Ettarh…. Ettarh makes use of the time period to use to historically low-waged employees like librarians, academics and nurses. In our ebook Chokepoint Capitalism, Rebecca Giblin and I talked about the way it applies to artists and different artistic employees, too… However vocational awe can also be omnipresent in tech. The grandiose claims to be on a mission to make the world a greater place usually are not simply puffery – they’re an important technique of motivating employees who can simply stop their jobs and discover a new one to place in 16-hour days…. At the moment, atomized tech employees who’re ordered to enshittify the merchandise they take pleasure in are dropping the argument. … It’s a type of ethical damage, and it’s palpable within the first-person accounts of former employees who’ve exited these giant corporations or the whole area…. My competition right here isn’t that Google’s enshittification was precipitated by a change in personnel through the promotion of managers who’ve shitty concepts. Google’s enshittification was precipitated by a change in self-discipline, because the destructive penalties of heeding these shitty concepts have been abolished due to monopoly. That is dangerous information for folks like me, who depend on companies like Google Maps as cognitive prostheses.” • Numerous great things right here, together with this aphorism: “An app is only a web-page wrapped in sufficient IP to make it a criminal offense to put in an ad-blocker.” Additionally, the brand new Google map design is horrid.

Information of the Wired

Periodic Desk of Instruments” • Helpful chart:

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From notabanker:

notabanker writes: “Took this shot right now proper when the solar was setting.”

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