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HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 11/2/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/2/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Tune of the Day

Plain Mountain Finch, Lokat Bangus (Little Bangus Valley), Kupwara, Jammu and Kashmir, India. “A number of cuts of tune and considered one of what could also be calls, or presumably one other tune kind, from a fowl perched on a medium-height spruce tree simply above treeline.”

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“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“Trump sues over efforts to maintain him off Michigan poll” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump’s attorneys have filed a lawsuit in search of to stop Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson from refusing to place him on the poll for the state’s 2024 presidential major and basic elections. The lawsuit was filed Monday and asks the courtroom to affirm that Benson (D) lacks the authority to resolve whether or not Trump could be disqualified from the poll beneath an interpretation of the 14th Modification. The lawsuit asks the courtroom to enter an injunction stopping her from barring Trump from the poll…. Benson has mentioned she is not going to attempt to maintain Trump off the poll in Michigan. Trump’s attorneys mentioned the previous president has despatched Benson a letter asking her to substantiate him as one of many official candidates and that she has not responded to that letter.. The disagreement started after a lawsuit was filed by Free Speech for Individuals, the identical group that filed in Minnesota.”

“Minnesota justices seem skeptical that states ought to resolve Trump’s eligibility for the poll” [Associated Press]. “Minnesota Supreme Courtroom justices appeared skeptical Thursday that states have the authority to dam former President Donald Trump from the poll, with some suggesting that Congress is finest positioned to resolve whether or not his function within the January 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol ought to stop him from operating. Justices sharply questioned an legal professional representing Minnesota voters who had sued to maintain Trump off the state poll beneath the not often used ‘revolt’ clause of the U.S. Structure. Citing Congress’ function in certifying presidential electors and its means to question, a number of justices mentioned it appeared as if questions of eligibility ought to be settled there. ‘And people all appear to recommend there’s a basic function for Congress to play and never the states due to that,’ Chief Justice Natalie E. Hudson mentioned. ‘It’s that interrelation that I feel is troubling, that implies that it is a nationwide matter for Congress to resolve.’”

“Fascinating Standing Dispute in Fourteenth Modification Part 3 Case Towards Trump” [Reason]. From Castro v. Warner, a professional se Fourteenth Modification Submitting, the courtroom writes: “In a number of filings, Mr. Castro has attacked the character or intelligence of opposing counsel, in addition to judges and courtroom workers. The Courtroom’s docket just isn’t a social media feed, and any future submitting with advert hominem assaults, inappropriate statements about people concerned on this litigation, or different snide and malicious feedback will likely be stricken from the report.”

Biden Administration

“Israel-Gaza conflict: US Home rejects effort to censure Rashida Tlaib” [Al Jazeera]. “The US Home of Representatives has rejected an effort to censure Palestinian American Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat who has been advocating for Palestinian rights amid Israel’s conflict on Gaza. The measure, which was launched by far-right Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, was halted in a 222 to 186 vote on Wednesday, with 23 Republicans becoming a member of the Democrats in opposing it. A Democratic effort to in flip censure Greene was known as off in response.”

“31 Democrats vote to maintain Santos in Congress” [The Hill]. “A complete of 31 Democrats joined 182 Republicans in voting to maintain Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in Congress on Wednesday, killing a Republican-led effort to oust the embattled lawmaker. The decrease chamber voted 213-179-19 towards a decision to expel Santos, marking the second unsuccessful try this yr to eject the first-term lawmaker from the Home. A two-thirds threshold is required to expel a member of Congress… The trouble to oust Santos was spearheaded by a gaggle of fellow first-term New York Republicans — led by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito — who moved final week to pressure a vote to expel Santos within the wake of his mounting authorized battles. D’Esposito known as the laws to the ground as a privileged decision, a procedural gambit that forces management to set a vote inside two legislative days.” • Cf. John 8:7.


Time for the Countdown Clock!

Solely 4 extra days till a full yr to election day!

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“”Your Cash’s in Joe’s Home”: The Biden Household’s Model of ‘It’s a Great Life’” [Jonathan Turley]. The headline is misleading; it doesn’t consult with Joe Biden, however to the film It’s a Great Life. Nonetheless. “What’s new now, in keeping with Home Republicans, is an rising sample of how the Bidens turned influence-peddling into the equal of the household’s private financial savings & mortgage operation. Cash transferring between key members of the family was labeled as a ‘mortgage’ in at the very least one occasion, and Hunter has claimed different cash as ‘loans’ — a framing that not solely supplied believable deniability however non-taxable earnings.Two IRS whistleblowers, who testified earlier than Home investigators in July, highlighted using a mortgage allegedly to evade public disclosure and taxation. Hunter allegedly took massive funds from doubtful overseas sources and listed them as ‘loans,’ regardless of no proof of compensation or any normal mortgage settlement. This month, Home investigators found that, in 2018, the president’s brother James obtained two loans totaling $600,000 from Americore Well being, which they described as ‘a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator.’ In accordance with the corporate’s chapter proceedings, it made the loans ‘primarily based upon representations that his final identify, ‘Biden,’ might ‘open doorways’” to new abroad traders. On the day he obtained the second mortgage switch, James Biden despatched a examine for a similar quantity — $200,000 — to Joe Biden as a ‘mortgage reimbursement.’ Not too long ago, the Home Oversight Committee revealed that simply after Joe Biden introduced his 2020 presidential candidacy, Hunter Biden obtained a $250,000 mortgage from a Chinese language businessman utilizing the handle of his father’s Delaware house. The beneficiant switch of funds was from Xiangsheng ‘Jonathan’ Li, a Chinese language businessman linked to the funding fund Bohai Harvest RST. (President Biden reportedly later wrote a college-admission suggestion for Li’s daughter). What occurred subsequent was classic Biden household: A Hollywood lawyer, who had simply met Hunter at a political gathering, reportedly abruptly took over the compensation of that mortgage, with no rationalization, and later reportedly paid for a few of Hunter’s tax payments and residing bills as effectively. So, it seems that $250,000 went to Hunter, however the mortgage obligation was shifted to a Democratic political donor.” • Good individuals being good to one another!

“Arab American help for Biden, Democrats plummets over Israel, ballot exhibits” [Reuters]. “- President Joe Biden’s help amongst Arab Individuals, who’re essential voters in battleground election states, has plunged from a snug majority in 2020 to only 17%, a brand new ballot exhibits, amid rising anger over the Democratic president’s help for Israel’s assaults on Gaza. Arab American help for Biden, at 59% in 2020, fell even earlier than the outbreak of violence within the Center East to 35%, the ballot commissioned by the Arab American Institute confirmed, however has halved since. The ballot, launched Tuesday, marks the primary time since its inception in 1997 {that a} majority of Arab Individuals didn’t determine as Democrats – 32% now determine as Republicans and 31% as independents. Forty p.c of these polled mentioned they’d vote for former President Donald Trump, the possible Republican candidate in 2024, up 5 share factors from 2020. The ballot was carried out by John Zogby Methods of 500 Arab Individuals with some answering on-line solely. The ballot has a margin of error of 4.9 share factors.” • Not a superexcellent ballot, however certainly directionally right.

MI: “Democrats worry that Biden’s Israel-Hamas conflict stance might value him reelection in Michigan” [Associated Press]. “Michigan was a essential element of the so-called blue wall of states that features Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that Biden returned to the Democratic column, serving to him win the White Home in 2020. Since then, Democrats have felt extra assured about their standing in Michigan, notably after Gov. Gretchen Whitmer notched a commanding 10-point reelection victory final yr.” Whitmer, after all, had a pleasant little tailwind from the spooks, what with a typical FBI entrapment scheme. Extra: “Michigan holds the biggest focus of Arab Individuals within the nation and over 310,000 residents are of Center Japanese or North African ancestry. Many in the neighborhood are pledging to coalesce towards Biden’s reelection marketing campaign except he requires a ceasefire within the conflict. Anger over Democrats’ response to the conflict was on full show this previous weekend in Wayne County, house to the biggest bloc of Democratic votes within the state and the supply of a lot of the pushback. A day after hundreds of individuals gathered in downtown Detroit to name for a ceasefire, Gov. Whitmer had a Sunday look in Dearborn canceled after a protest was deliberate exterior the occasion. Whitmer, a co-chair of Biden’s reelection marketing campaign, mentioned in a press release that her look would have ‘distracted’ from the occasion.”

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“Democrats quietly transfer to succeed Biden” [Axios]. “Democratic governors and senators are quietly transferring to spice up their nationwide profiles and place themselves to run for president in 2028 — or in 2024, if President Biden unexpectedly drops out…. In latest months, greater than half a dozen Democratic lawmakers have established nationwide political organizations, launched into resume-building overseas journeys, and visited states that historically maintain early presidential primaries.” Booker, Pritzker, Whitmer, Harris, Newsom are the massive ones; Phil Murphy, Ro Khanna (see beneath), Mark Kelly, and Josh Shapiro are additionally talked about. Extra: “If Biden have been to go away the race earlier than the top of this yr, there possible can be time for candidates to get on sufficient state ballots to find out the nomination. But when he have been to exit after Jan. 1, the nomination battle extra possible would go to the Democrats’ conference in Chicago as a result of candidates wouldn’t have the ability to get on the poll in sufficient states, in keeping with a latest evaluation by the Brookings Establishment’s Elaine Kamarck, who has been on the DNC’s Guidelines Committee since 1997. In that case, Biden possible would have some delegates and will ask them to help a candidate — however the delegates can be free to help who they need.” • Scorching take, value what you paid for it: Pritzker is the choose of the litter, despite the fact that Newsom thinks he’s.

“What occurs if a presidential candidate can’t take workplace because of loss of life or incapacitation earlier than January 2025?” [Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Institution]. “The authority of the nationwide events to decide on their nominee within the occasion the nominee can’t run comes as a shock to many on this day of wall-to-wall primaries. And but, it’s a reminder that the selection of a nominee is social gathering enterprise — not state regulation, not federal regulation, and never constitutional regulation.” • Yep. For the Democrats, see NC right here. As soon as once more — and we’re seeing this come into even sharper focus with the Fourteenth Modification controversy — management of the poll is the distinctive competence of the trendy political social gathering.

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“Brazile pans Dean Phillips run towards Biden: ‘Have enjoyable on the market’” [The Hill]. “Brazile mentioned she wasn’t certain what Phillips’s ‘sport plan’ was, noting the uphill problem that Phillips would have as a way to launch any actual problem to unseat the incumbent president. ‘That is 2023, and the final time I appeared on the calendar, there are at the very least six states that you must be on the poll by the top of subsequent month, 22 states earlier than the top of the yr. The race for delegates just isn’t a reputation contest. It’s a race the place you must truly exit and determine, recruit individuals,’ she mentioned on ABC’s ‘This Week’ on Sunday, the place she serves as a panelist. ‘So good luck, Mr. Phillips. Have enjoyable on the market. However, guess what? I can’t be seeing him in Chicago except he’s an computerized superdelegate,’ she mentioned, referring to the town internet hosting the Democratic Nationwide Conference.”

“The true risk Dean Phillips poses to Biden” [Politico]. “Even Biden’s backers in New Hampshire, the place Phillips is relying on an early upset, are fearful about his age. A 63 p.c majority of Democratic major voters supporting Biden in a CNN/College of New Hampshire ballot final month mentioned age was their largest concern concerning the president. Already, the Minnesota congressmember is signaling this will likely be a central a part of his argument. And he’s maybe a greater messenger than Trump, who is just three years youthful than Biden.” • As I mentioned, I feel “exhausted majority” isn’t a foul message–

“Minnesota’s Phillips sees ‘exhausted majority’ as his path to the White Home” [MPR News]. “The kickoff has been extremely orchestrated, with long-form profiles and nationwide tv interviews in-built round it. Phillips can be dealing with scrutiny on a scale he didn’t obtain as a congressional candidate along with his funds, previous feedback and extra beneath the microscope. However he does have some presidential marketing campaign veterans surrounding him. Steve Schmidt, who helped Republican Sen. John McCain to the nomination in 2008, is a high Phillips strategist.” • Schmidt is a Lincoln Venture veteran, if “veteran” is the phrase I would like. Right here is the origin of the phrase–

“The Hidden Tribes of America” (PDF) [More in Common]. Dates from 2018. Funding. From this diagram, “exhausted majority” is one other method of claiming [genuflects] “centrists.”

And in prose, from web page 117:

America’s tribal politics, from social media trolling to debates within the halls of Congress, are repelling a majority of Individuals. The Exhausted Majority is uncomfortable with the ideological conformity and the outrage tradition which have taken maintain in probably the most extremely engaged tribes. Individuals within the Exhausted Majority are sometimes hesitant to weigh in for worry of claiming the fallacious factor. This contributes to the detachment of the 41 p.c of Individuals who belong to the Passive Liberal and Politically Disengaged tribes. Public points have all the time engaged some people extra strongly than others. What’s hanging now could be the widening gulf between those that are extremely engaged in America’s polarized political debates and the Exhausted Majority of Individuals, who discover the relentless ideological battle dispiriting. They really feel unrepresented in immediately’s polarized politics. The views of the Exhausted Majority are grounds for hope in addition to concern. On the one hand, they reject ideological purity and acknowledge the need of compromise in politics as in all areas of life. Alternatively, their detachment (and the media’s choice for battle) permits the opposing wings of the spectrum to dominate public debate. This contributes to the misperception that America is made up of simply two teams who’re hell-bent on defeating one another in any respect prices. A brand new understanding of the American political panorama is required, one which not airbrushes this Exhausted Majority out of the image, however places them within the middle.

Look, I’m exhausted as a result of individuals are dropping like flies, whether or not from “Democrat wars” or the Biden administration’s stochastic eugenicism on Covid. However I’m undecided I’m, effectively, represented on this framework. (Additionally, I feel “tribalism” isn’t sociology, even sloppy sociology; it’s simply market segmentation utilized to political opinions primarily based on surveys; see web page 5.)

“An exhausted majority in America is bored with polarization, desires these governing to hunt frequent floor” []. From January 2023: “A time period utilized by Rep. Tim Ryan in his Senate marketing campaign, this majority of Individuals is what we name, the ‘Exhausted Majority’— those who usually are extra versatile of their political opinions, fed up with polarization, consider we are able to discover frequent floor, and are much less lively in our political discourse. Nationwide, they characterize two-thirds of the inhabitants, but aren’t as current in our public debates. Whereas Ryan didn’t win, there’s proof that the ‘exhausted majority’ voice is one which we should always begin listening to extra intently… Regardless of the portrayal of a “divided” nation, we don’t have to decide on this story of polarization and division. However as a way to try this we should resist the temptation to view our fellow Individuals’ views by way of the slim lens of the divisive voices we hear in our public arenas.” • From a Extra in Widespread staffer. Notice that Tim Ryan had Steve Schmidt as an advisor, as does Phillips.

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“Spoiler alert? Ballot has RFK Jr. grabbing 22 p.c towards Biden and Trump” [Politico]. “Operating with a promise to ‘spoil’ the 2024 presidential contest, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. simply obtained an indication that he may be making good on that pitch: A latest ballot exhibits him with 22 p.c help in a hypothetical three-way race towards President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Biden, against this, would take 39 p.c of the vote, and Trump would come away with 36 p.c, in keeping with the Quinnipiac College’s survey. In one other constructive signal for Kennedy, he got here away with the backing of a plurality of independents: 36 p.c selected him, in contrast with 31 p.c for Trump and 30 p.c for Biden. The general 22 p.c doesn’t recommend he can but break by way of the two-party system and put his identify on the Electoral School map subsequent yr as an impartial. However the greater risk his candidacy poses to Biden and Trump is the potential of siphoning simply sufficient votes from considered one of them to swing an in any other case coin-flip state in November.” • Yep. Although it’s early, I haven’t seen any proof that RFK is concentrating on this or that swing state.

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“Backing Biden in 2024, this Democrat congressman sparks 2028 hypothesis” [FOX]. “‘I do regardless of the president tells me in terms of 2024 and his crew,’ Khanna mentioned throughout a Fox Information Digital interview. ‘I’m a foot soldier in terms of ensuring he will get reelected.’ However that mission could pay dividends for Khanna in 2028, when 47-year-old politician from California could have nationwide aspirations.”

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GA: “The Trump period has modified the politics of native elections in Georgia, a pivotal 2024 battleground” [Associated Press]. “Going into the 2024 presidential election, the dynamics in Johns Creek and different close by Atlanta suburbs replicate how partisan and cultural divisions that intensified since Trump’s 2016 run have trickled all the way down to native campaigns. Some activists and voters now view these nominally nonpartisan contests as essential fronts in shaping the nation’s identification. ‘Individuals have a proper to know who they’re voting for,’ mentioned Betsy Kramer, a Republican Get together volunteer who’s backing [Stacy] Skinner in Johns Creek, which is about 30 miles north of downtown Atlanta in Fulton County. ‘I’m not voting for a Democrat,’ Kramer mentioned. ‘I’m involved that if Democrats begin taking on north Fulton, the entire space goes to vary dramatically.’ The suburbs of Georgia’s largest metropolis as soon as anchored the state’s Republican institution. At this time, they play a chief function in figuring out the outcomes of statewide races. In 2020, they have been pivotal in Democrat Joe Biden’s shut victory over Trump, the Republican incumbent, within the president election. This swath of the metro space has grow to be extra demographically and politically numerous over latest a long time, with development amongst Asian American, Black and Hispanic populations that assist enhance Democrats’ vote totals. The share of Georgia residents who determine as white and non-Hispanic fell in the newest census to 50.1%, the bottom on report. Moreover, some Republicans who nonetheless make up north Fulton County’s electoral majority have by no means marched in lockstep with Trump and the tea social gathering, a motion that opposes the Washington political institution and espouses conservative and libertarian philosophy. In 2020, Trump underperformed historic Republican benefits within the space on his option to shedding Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes out of 5 million solid. And the area as soon as elected Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state who bucked Trump’s efforts to overturn his defeat, to the state Senate.”

VA: “Why a 2023 Virginia Election Is a Proving Floor for 2024” [Wall Street Journal]. “THE PLAINS, Va.—For clues concerning the energy of each events’ messages heading into 2024, look no additional than this suburban Northern Virginia enclave…. The Nov. 7 contest pits Republican Juan Pablo Segura, a 35-year-old entrepreneur, towards Democrat Russet Perry, 39, a former Central Intelligence Company officer and prosecutor.” Superior. One other CIA Democrat. Extra: “The seat is essential to Democrats’ bid to maintain their slim edge within the 40-seat Senate, the place they’ve squared off towards Youngkin and Republicans who narrowly lead the Home…. The battle for the newly drawn seat overlaying components of prosperous Loudoun and Fauquier counties is shaping up because the state’s most costly Senate race this yr, with greater than $11 million raised by way of Oct. 26. If Republicans flip the Senate and maintain the Home, the GOP can have a trifecta with Youngkin within the governor’s workplace.”

VA: “Virginia’s Election Might Determine Destiny of Youngkin’s Schooling Agenda” [The 74]. “Virginia, the place Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin nonetheless has two years left in his time period [is] a real battleground whose end result might function a bellwether for the nationwide temper. And in few different states have schooling debates performed such a outstanding function in latest political historical past…. Management over the State Meeting will likely be determined by only a handful of swing seats, however the vary of potentialities for governance is large. If Democrats preserve their 22-18 lead within the state Senate — and maybe win a majority within the Home of Delegates, the place Republicans at present maintain a four-seat edge — they’ll retain the power to examine Youngkin’s ambitions and escape the rightward thrust that has introduced expanded college selection and anti-critical race idea laws to states like Florida. But when the governor’s social gathering is ready to seize each chambers, he might journey his conservative report and electoral victories to an enviable perch within the Republican presidential major.” • New supply for me that quotes Emily Oster approvingly, so Deal with with Care. Nonetheless, on the politics, they’re proper.

Republican Funhouse

“Speaker Johnson: Resolution on Biden impeachment articles coming ‘very quickly’” [The Hill]. “Requested throughout a press convention if he believes there’s sufficient proof to maneuver on articles of impeachment towards Biden, Johnson mentioned: ‘I do consider that very quickly we’re coming to a degree of choice on it.’ He later added, ‘We’re gonna observe the proof the place it leads and we’ll see, and I’m not gonna pre-determine it this morning.’ The newly minted Speaker, who has a constitutional regulation background, emphasised the significance of due course of.”

“Speaker Johnson faucets veteran GOP operative as chief spokesperson” [Politico]. “Speaker Mike Johnson has tapped veteran Republican operative Raj Shah to construct and oversee his communications operation, in keeping with an individual acquainted with the transfer…. Shah beforehand spent 4 years as senior vp for public affairs at Fox Company. Earlier than that, he served as a high communications official within the Trump White Home, and was analysis director on the Republican Nationwide Committee throughout the 2016 marketing campaign.”

“Does New Speaker of the Home Mike Johnson Have a Financial institution Account?’ [Daily Beast]. “Newly elected Speaker of the Home Mike Johnson (R-LA) doesn’t have a checking account. A minimum of, that’s what Johnson reviews on years of non-public monetary disclosures, which date again to 2016 and reveal a monetary life that, within the context of his function as a congressman and now speaker, seems terribly precarious. Over the course of seven years, Johnson has by no means reported a checking or financial savings account in his identify, nor within the identify of his spouse or any of his kids, disclosures present. In truth, he doesn’t seem to have cash stashed in any investments, along with his newest submitting—overlaying 2022—exhibiting no property in any way. After all, it’s unlikely Johnson doesn’t even have a checking account. What’s extra possible is Johnson lives paycheck to paycheck—a lot in order that he doesn’t have the funds for in his checking account to set off the checking account disclosure guidelines for members of Congress.” • Speaks effectively of him, truly.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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Realignment and Legitimacy


“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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Censorship and Propaganda

“COVID Lockdowns Have been a Big Experiment. It Was a Failure” [New York Magazine]. • Proper, that’s why 1.9 million Chinese language died after Xi kowtowed to capital and deserted Zero Covid. Oh effectively, they had it coming would have died anyhow.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

HICPAC is assembly immediately:

“Healthcare Personnel Use of N95 Respirators or Medical/ Surgical Masks for Safety Towards Respiratory Infections: A Systematic Evaluation and MetaAnalysis” (PDF) (draft) [CDC]. Weirdly, this rubbish barge draft — higher than a PowerPoint, at the very least! — has no cowl sheet giving the creator(s). Additionally, all the fabric that went into the creation of this draft should be public for CDC to be in compliance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA). It’s not. A cursory studying yields this footnote on web page two. The textual content, at 1-5:

And word 2, throughout the 1-5 vary:

Notice 2 consult with the long-discredited, shamelessly tendentious, bungled, and Brownnose Institute-driven Cochrane Report. So we’re solely two pages in, and we already know the unknown producers of this dreck deliverable aren’t solely sloppy copy editors — I’ve helpfully highlighted the topic verb-agreement subject; one can solely marvel what else is fallacious — however missing in scientific judgment (one can solely hope that not one of the authors have been adversely affected by the superspreading occasion that CDC sponsored for its “an infection detectives” in April).

And studying additional:

At [1]: I suppose we’ll need to see about that. Quoting from the JAMA article linked in yesterday’s Water Cooler: “The upper filtration effectivity of N95 respirators in contrast with surgical masks offers additional proof of efficacy—primarily, a dose-response affiliation of the intervention with the end result.” Sure, it is a group setting, however I’d be hard-pressed to see why engineering that works in a group settings doesn’t work in a hospital. Additionally, I word that the pure RCT masks research from BanglaDesh was excluded, given its conclusion that surgical masks have been higher than material masks; IOW, the higher the engineering, the higher the safety.

I hope to have extra on this emissionvile screed doc over the weekend. (I bear in mind the phrase “strong” from my consulting days; for deliverables, “strong” meant a number of honkin’ large binders. This steamer draft is clearly “strong”; it’s a ginormous Gish Gallop, and so I’ll want to search out an angle of assault {that a} easy blogger can execute.

Instantaneous karma:

Now, this actually implies droplet tranmission, so the joke reinforces droplet dogma, however there’s something scrumptious about HICPAC members spraying SARS-CoV-2-laded loogies in one another. Nobody can say they didn’t earn it!

By their fruits shall ye know them:

No filtration, only a few masks.

Proper now the Committee members are infecting one another at lunch:

Possibly some variety reader will take a hear…

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Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, October 30:

Lambert right here: Circumstances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card. And Thanksgiving is arising.

Regional information:


NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB. trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of in poor health intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 28:

Lambert right here: Flattening. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.


Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of November 2:

Flattened, (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. October 30:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?


NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 30:

1.3%. Improve. (It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:

Lambert right here: Slight enhance. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, October 9:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden large BA.2.86 look.


NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: Dunno why no updates. I’ll need to drop this one, with nice reluctance; I like my sources non-CDC.

Complete: 1,181,151 – 1,180,669 = 482 (482 * 365 = 175,930 deaths per yr, immediately’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 27:

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 5,000 to 217,000 on the week ending October twenty eighth, above market expectations of 210,000, to mark the best quantity of claims in almost two months. Within the meantime, persevering with claims rose by 35,000 to 1,818,000 within the earlier week, the best since April and above market expectations of 1,800,000, suggesting that the unemployed are having better difficulties discovering employment. The information aligned with alerts from the Federal Reserve that labor market circumstances are going by way of some softening, regardless of remaining at traditionally tight ranges.”

Employment Scenario: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US-based employers introduced plans to chop 36,836 jobs in October 2023, the least in three months, and after 47,457 redundancies in September. The tech sector led all industries with 6,524 cuts, probably the most since Might, adopted by warehousing (4,138), monetary corporations (3,419), and insurers (2,752). ‘Job minimize plans have slowed considerably for the reason that first half of the yr, and customers have continued to spend, even within the face of excessive inflation. Pandemic financial savings and better wages have gotten many staff by way of financial uncertainty,’ mentioned Andy Challenger.”

Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing facility Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured items within the US superior 2.8 p.c from the earlier month to $601.5 in September 2023, probably the most since January 2021, greater than market expectations of a 2.4 p.c rise and after a 1 p.c enhance.”

* * *

The Bezzle: “WeWork plans to file for chapter as early as subsequent week, supply says” [Reuters]. ” WeWork (WE.N) plans to file for chapter as early as subsequent week, a supply acquainted with the matter mentioned on Tuesday, because the SoftBank Group-backed firm struggles with an enormous debt pile and hefty losses. Shares of the versatile workspace supplier fell 32% in prolonged buying and selling after the Wall Avenue Journal first reported the information. They’ve fallen roughly 96% this yr. New York-based WeWork is contemplating submitting a Chapter 11 petition in New Jersey, the WSJ reported, citing individuals acquainted with the matter. WeWork declined to remark. Earlier on Tuesday, WeWork mentioned it had entered into an settlement with collectors for momentary postponement of funds for a few of its debt, with the grace interval nearing an finish.”

Media: “US media veterans again new buying and selling agency with monetary information arm” [Financial Times]. “The enterprise, based by investor Nathaniel Brooks Horwitz and author Sam Koppelman, would comprise two entities: a buying and selling fund and a gaggle of analysts and journalists producing tales primarily based on publicly out there materials, in keeping with a number of individuals acquainted with the matter. The fund would place trades earlier than articles have been revealed, after which publish its analysis and buying and selling thesis, they mentioned, however wouldn’t commerce on data that was not publicly out there. The beginning-up, known as Hunterbrook, had raised $10mn in seed funding and is focusing on a $100mn launch for its fund, in keeping with two individuals concerned. ‘Watchdog’ was a reputation floated early on for the information arm. Matt Murray, the previous editor-in-chief of The Wall Avenue Journal, is appearing as an adviser by way of his function with Outdoors the Field Investments, one of many firm’s traders. Hunterbrook and Murray declined to remark. The enterprise capital arm of Emerson Collective, the philanthropic organisation run by Laurene Powell Jobs that’s the majority proprietor of The Atlantic journal, can be an investor. Representatives for Emerson didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark. In an early message to potential traders, seen by the Monetary Instances, Horwitz mentioned the funding fund would get ‘distinctive entry’ to articles earlier than they’re revealed. ‘Slightly than attempt to predict or react to occasions, we time trades on information we break ourselves,’ he wrote, styling the enterprise as .” • Hmm.

* * *

At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 33 Worry (earlier shut: 32 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 2 at 1:22:25 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

So long as wint is on the Twitter:

Class Warfare

“An Epidemic of Unhappiness Is Consuming Younger Individuals. It Might Hobble the Financial system” [Barron’s]. “Within the newest analysis, I requested this query: Over the previous 30 days, what variety of these days [were] unhealthy psychological well being days? For those who mentioned “every single day of my life is a foul psychological well being day,” that’s what I name misery. In 2011, about 5% of ladies beneath age 25 reported psychological misery. However by 2023, greater than 10% mentioned every single day of their lives was a foul psychological well being day. The identical factor is going on with younger males. It isn’t only a younger lady’s downside. Each younger ladies and younger males have seen this uptick, though for girls it’s worse. To this point, now we have seen that ranges of psychological misery fluctuate particularly by schooling—. At first, I assumed the Covid-19 pandemic might be the trigger, but it surely isn’t simply Covid. It’s clear within the information that the development began previous to Covid. You’ll be able to see that it began roughly in 2011. Covid simply prolonged the development.” • 2011? After it was clear Obama had taken away “hope,” maybe. And that there can be no change. (Schooling is, after all, a proxy for sophistication.)

Information of the Wired

New Beatles tune:

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “Nikon D3100; Hydrangea; Naples Island, Lengthy Seaside, California.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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