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HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 11/1/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/1/2023 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I had a liquid lunch and, fairly frankly, I’m plotzed. I’ll make it as much as you tomorrow, I swear! –lambert

Chook Music of the Day

Spectacled Finch, Seri Paya, North-West Frontier, Pakistan.

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

The Blob speaks:

I just like the purple background; artwork director editorializing slightly bit, there.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

Solely 5 extra days till a full 12 months to election day!

* * *

“Liberals, Begin Giving Biden Some Rattling Credit score” [Michael Tomasky (of course), The New Republic (of course)]. “Biden’s well timed present of help was nearly the one one I can consider the place a sitting president so overtly sided with labor in such a dispute.” • Sure, the railroad employees ought to be certain that their contract negotiations occur in an election 12 months, so Democrats haven’t any incentive to betray them. Is Tomasky slightly baby?

“Step apart Hillary, Joe Biden could grow to be king of e-mail scandals as new stash alarms investigators” [Just the News]. “Beneath authorized stress, the Nationwide Archives has confirmed to a courtroom that it has situated 82,000 pages of emails that Biden despatched or acquired throughout his vice presidential tenure on three non-public pseudonym accounts. … [I]n Might 2016, Biden’s vice presidential employees despatched an e-mail to Joe Biden’s non-public account and copied Hunter Biden alerting the longer term first son that his father was having a cellphone briefing with Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, the place Hunter Biden had substantial enterprise with the power agency Burisma Holdings. ‘Boss–8:45am prep for 9am cellphone name with Pres Poroshenko. Then we’re off to Rhode Island for infrastructure occasion after which Wilmington for UDel graduation,’ the staffer wrote the then-vice president. ‘Nate may have your draft remarks delivered later tonight or together with your press clips within the morning.’” • Oh. That’s good.

Republican Funhouse

“Mike Johnson is a pro-gun Christian nationalist. Sure, be afraid” [WaPo]. “Certainly, Johnson acquired proper to work mixing church and state in his first speech after he gained the speakership. ‘I imagine that scripture, the Bible may be very clear: that God is the one which raises up these in authority,’ he mentioned from the pulpit — er, the Home rostrum. ‘And I imagine that God has ordained and allowed every one among us to be introduced right here for this particular second.’” • Superior. Any individual ought to ask Johnson why God raised up FDR or, for that matter, Lenin. The remainder of this text is a totally unserious listicle of liberal Democrat reactance.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

No:

The time for Sanders to have pivoted to labor was instantly after the Evening of the Lengthy Knives, when the labor pot was not solely boiling, however labor confronted the onset of Covid, as I urged contemporaneously (however can’t discover as a result of [family blogging] Google is 100% crapified. Now it’s approach too late. Don’t give him a dime.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

“Masks Throughout Pandemics Attributable to Respiratory Pathogens—Proof and Implications for Motion” [JAMA]. From the Summary: “Sturdy out there information help using face masks in neighborhood settings to cut back transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and will inform future responses to epidemics and pandemics brought on by respiratory viruses.” • IOW, HICPAC’s “proof assessment” on masking is stuffed with sh*t, as I argued on the time. What a shock!

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

I linked to this yesterday, nevertheless it’s essential that Jimenez picked it up:

* * *

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, October 30:

Lambert right here: Circumstances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card. And Thanksgiving is developing.

Regional information:

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 28:

Lambert right here: Flattening. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of October 31:

Flattened, (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. October 21:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 30:

1.3%. Enhance. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:

Lambert right here: Slight improve. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, October 9:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden large BA.2.86 look.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,180,669 – 1,180,405 = 264 (264 * 365 = 96,360 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 27:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Non-public companies in the US added 113,000 employees to their payrolls in October 2023, barely under market expectations of a 150,000 improve and following a earlier achieve of 89,000. Nevertheless, job positive aspects continued to exceed the 70,000-100,000 vary required every month to accommodate the rising working-age inhabitants, suggesting that the labor market is certainly displaying indicators of gradual rest however stays strong, even within the face of the Federal Reserve’s tightening measures.” Powell’s rubber thumbscrews….

Employment Scenario: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings elevated by 56,000 from the earlier month to 9.55 million in September 2023, reaching the best stage in 4 months and exceeding the market consensus of 9.25 million.”

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Buying Managers Index (PMI)” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.7 in October of 2023 from the 10-month excessive of 49 within the earlier month, nicely under expectations of 49, pointing to the eleventh consecutive contraction within the US manufacturing sector. The info underscored the influence of upper borrowing prices from the Federal Reserve within the sector, additional difficult the resilience of US items producers from different studies.”

* * *

At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 32 Concern (earlier shut: 30 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 1 at 1:42:06 PM ET.

* * *

Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From PR:

PR writes: “Creepy AI-generated vegetable zombie pic, in case Lambert desires a plant pic for halloween. Grainnnzzz!” Comfortable post-Halloween!

And parallel to the “humorous greens” in Terry Pratchett’s The Fact, this from Desert Canine:

Desert Canine feedback: “Getting married…. Household weblog.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

When you hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on the right way to ship a verify. Thanks!

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