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HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 10/30/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 10/30/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Tune of the Day

Masked Finch, Edith Falls Rd at -14.1871,132.0824, Roper Gulf, Northern Territory, Australia. For Halloween, little doubt.

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“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Reagan higher on Israel than Biden:

To be truthful, perhaps Biden’s forgotten the best way to decide up a telephone?

“White Home unveils wide-ranging motion to mitigate AI dangers” [Reuters]. “NetChoice, a nationwide commerce affiliation that features main tech platforms, described the chief order as an ‘AI Purple Tape Wishlist,’ that can find yourself “stifling new corporations and rivals from coming into {the marketplace} and considerably increasing the facility of the federal authorities over American innovation.’” All good, i true, however I doubt very a lot that it’s. Extra: “As a part of the order, the Commerce Division will ‘develop steering for content material authentication and watermarking’ for labeling gadgets which might be generated by AI, to ensure authorities communications are clear, the White Home stated in a launch.” • Wonderful that AI, which is way extra pernicious than Bitcoin — bullshit era at scale, based on the outright theft of mental property, and a recipe for crapifying the discourse in near-real time — is being normalized with unimaginable velocity. I suppose Bitcoin impacted the monetary sector, so it’s necessary.

Our Famously Free Press


Time for the Countdown Clock!

Solely seven extra days till it’s a full 12 months to election day!

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“Trump holds lead in Iowa ballot whereas Haley ties DeSantis for second” [Politico]. “The ballot additionally discovered that 65 % of seemingly caucusgoers consider Trump can win a basic election in opposition to President Joe Biden regardless of the authorized challenges the previous president faces — whereas 32 % stated it will be almost unattainable for him to beat Biden.”

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Vivek the goat sacrificer:

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“Minnesota congressman declares main problem to Biden, saying Democrats should concentrate on future” [Los Angeles Times]. Oddly, I can’t search any New Hampshire protection in any respect; not the Union-Chief, not the Harmony Monitor. “The Minnesota congressman lastly entered the race himself Friday, saying exterior the New Hampshire State Home: ‘It’s time for the torch to be handed to a brand new era of American leaders.’… Phillips stated in his speech that he’d attempt to repair the economic system [horserace], and warned about excessive costs [horserace] and ‘the chaos at our border’ [horserace] — points that could possibly be vulnerabilities for Biden in what could possibly be a rematch in opposition to former President Trump. However Terry Shumaker, a former DNC member from New Hampshire and longtime Biden supporter, stated[:] ‘I’m not conscious of what his message is,’ he stated. ‘To do properly within the New Hampshire main, it’s important to have a message.”” • Watch “no message” grow to be the speaking level.

“My Invitation to America” (e-mail) [Dean Phillips, Phillips for President (CI)]. For some purpose, I can solely discover the speech in its entirety in just a few YouTube clips. Right here is the message that DNC goon Shumaker was unable to seek out, and which the Los Angeles Occasions didn’t quote:

However we, America’s , know that one thing has gone terribly, terribly flawed [“carnage”].

We face a disaster of cooperation and of frequent sense.

A disaster of group and of particular person initiative.

And an issue of participation and priorities.

For right now’s America spends extra paying our money owed of the previous than investing in our future.

A majority of our neighbors reside paycheck to paycheck, unable to get forward and save for his or her goals.

Life is just unaffordable.

We fund extra for preventing than we do for feeding.

Firms and the properly off – together with me – take pleasure in extra favorable tax remedy than working households.

Too a lot of our youngsters are hungry and our veterans homeless. Anger and violence is rising, as our life expectancy is falling. Gun violence ravages our communities, and we tolerate it.

America has no well being care, solely sick care that’s costlier than anyplace else on the planet.

Now we have no psychological well being system, solely a system of greed and corruption.

Chaos at our border and in our cities is rising, whereas our dedication to countering it’s receding.

Costs are too excessive, healthcare and medication too costly, and ailments of despair are claiming our youngsters by way of habit and suicide.

We spend billions sending our troopers to international lands and nonetheless haven’t mounted the failures in Flint.

And are so busy preventing each other that we’ve got ceased the battle in opposition to our best challenges.

So come on, America! We’re higher! So let’s do higher. It’s time for we [sic], , to fulfill this second!

“The exhausted majority” would possibly ring a bell. It does with me! (Until “exhaustion” is a subliminal nudge, there’s no point out of Covid in any respect. A 3rd rail?) Readers?

“Opinion: There could also be extra to Dean Phillips’ ‘moon shot’ presidential bid than meets the attention” [CNN]. Has a helpful potted biography of Phillips. “[W]inning an uncontested early main could be the increase [Phillips] must grow to be a a lot bigger determine within the nationwide dialog [lol]. It’s laborious to argue that Biden would have ended up selecting Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg for vp and transportation secretary had they not launched their very own ‘long-shot’ presidential runs again in 2019. Not that Phillips is essentially eyeing a cabinet-level place in a second Biden time period. He’s nonetheless on the poll for his congressional seat in his house district in Minnesota, though he’ll seemingly face a formidable main challenger. Extra seemingly, Phillips is trying to make use of the opening in New Hampshire to get his identify in play for a 2028 presidential run, when Biden will both be on the finish of his term-limits or too previous to run once more.” • “Nationwide dialog” is a inform; a deep-dyed Democrat loyalist. That is absolutely the standard knowledge. Phillips’ biography is attention-grabbing. I don’t see why he’d be working for transportation secretary. He would possibly lose, however my totally unevidenced sizzling take is that he’s “in it to win it,” having assessed that Biden is a far weaker candidate than he seems, each politically and bodily/psychically. (Perhaps some intelligent Democratic strategist performed him a video timeline of Biden strolling, sitting, standing, speaking, folding deckchairs, and so forth.; juiced up, and never. The truth is, I’m stunned there isn’t such a factor runnning round.)

“Joe Biden’s Massive New Hampshire Blunder” [Politico]. “By scrapping Iowa, demoting New Hampshire from its first-in-the-nation perch and transferring up South Carolina to start the balloting, President Joe Biden hoped to preempt a nuisance main problem that might embarrass him earlier than the final election. However which may be exactly what he has invited upon himself…. Mixing the keenness of a pre-adolescent gazing up at a T-Rex likeness and the completely satisfied warrior pleasure of his political hero Hubert Humphrey, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) let loose back-to-back ‘wows,’ signed his declaration of candidacy and paid the $1,000 to look on New Hampshire’s presidential poll. Then he went about . ‘I realized to like my nation proper right here in New Hampshire,; Phillips stated, recounting to the photographers, reporters and state officers cramped into the Secretary of State’s capitol workplace his summers spent at a camp within the White Mountains. (The camp is technically in Maine although alongside the New Hampshire border, because the Union Chief reported.) He additionally revealed his inscription on the paperwork: ‘I like New Hampshire.’” • BWA-HA-HA-HA!!!! Cross my coronary heart, no backsies, I wrote the “in it to win it” paragraph earlier than I learn this!

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“Pence ends White Home marketing campaign after struggling to achieve traction. ‘This isn’t my time,’ he says” [Associated Press]. “Pence’s choice, greater than two months earlier than the Iowa caucuses that he had staked his marketing campaign on, saves him from accumulating extra debt, in addition to the embarrassment of doubtless failing to qualify for the third Republican main debate, on Nov. 8 in Miami. However his withdrawal is a large blow for a politician who spent years biding his time as Trump’s most loyal lieutenant, solely to be scapegoated throughout their last days in workplace when Trump grew to become satisfied that Pence by some means had the facility to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 election and preserve each males in workplace — which he didn’t. Whereas Pence averted a constitutional disaster by rejecting the scheme, he drew Trump’s fury, in addition to the wrath of a lot of Trump’s supporters, who nonetheless believed his lies concerning the election and see Pence as a traitor. Amongst Trump critics, in the meantime, Pence was seen as an enabler who defended the previous president at each flip and refused to criticize even Trump’s most indefensible actions. Consequently, an Related Press-NORC Middle for Public Affairs Analysis from August discovered that almost all of U.S. adults, 57%, seen Pence negatively, with solely 28% having a optimistic view.” • Oof.

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Newsom in China:

That will need to have gone over huge together with his hosts. A minimum of Newsom didn’t kick a pet!

Republican Funhouse

Wait, Johnson’s a liberal Democrat?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“Andy Kim is making a giant guess on breaking New Jersey Democratic politics” [Politico]. • Andy Kim is a CIA Democrat.


“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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Extraordinary psychological gyrations!


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Oh for pity’s sake:

Hotez is being careless and silly, and setting a foul instance. WTF?

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N95 electrostatic explainer:

Covid is Airborne

The CBS 60 Minutes program implies that airborne is lastly getting numerous play. Bear in mind the Skagit Valley refrain? One of many first instances that confirmed how aerosol transmission in a “3-C’s” (closed, crowded, close-contact) setting led to super-spreading occasions. Right here it’s:

Right here is that examine. In case you spend time in a efficiency area, like a choir, chances are you’ll discover it helpful–

“Lowering bioaerosol emissions and exposures within the performing arts” [Colorado State University]. From 2021: “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) advocates sustaining six ft from others to forestall the unfold of Coronavirus Illness 2019 (COVID-19); nonetheless, that is based mostly on anticipated airborne particles [the study proper says “bio-aerosols“] emitted throughout common respiration. Efficiency artists usually tend to show forced-air respiration (i.e., singing, enjoying musical devices or dancing, amongst different creative expressions), which is extra like sneezing and coughing. Whereas knowledge is missing, there’s growing consensus that infectious aerosolized particles containing SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 are partly answerable for world unfold. In line with one latest examine, the transmission distance of SARS-CoV-2 could also be greater than 13 ft ( Sadly, many contaminated people don’t understand they’re contaminated; and group actions akin to choir, dance, performing, or instrument ensembles improve the chance of unfold. Options are wanted to cut back the chance of viral unfold throughout performances and group apply settings.” Even in 2021, CDC was completely feckless. Right here is the paper.

Airborne assets. Fairly a listing:

Testing and Monitoring

“Detecting Covid surges is getting more durable, because of a contract dispute” [Politico]. Biobot v. Verily makes Politico (!). “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention needs to switch the agency it has labored with since 2020 to check wastewater for Covid in an effort to higher direct public well being assets. However that agency, Massachusetts-based Biobot, has filed a protest, stymieing the transition….. In an interview, CDC Director Mandy Cohen declined to touch upon the specifics of the dispute, saying it was a “contracting state of affairs.’” I don’t consider that anyone has truly seen the contract. Extra: “The CDC has not defined why it determined to alter contractors, although its cope with Verily[, a subsidiary of Google’s parent company,] is significantly cheaper. Verily’s contract is for $38 million over 5 years. Biobot’s most up-to-date contract was for about $31 million over lower than a 12 months and a half.” NIH blew a billion {dollars} on a ineffective Lengthy Covid examine. This cash is sofa change. Extra: “Even when Verily is ready to start work quickly, some foresee issues associated to the continuity of the info. ‘The loss is the lack of historic comparability. It’s like ranging from day zero with a brand new surveillance system,’ stated David Larsen, chair of the general public well being division at Syracuse College and a wastewater surveillance researcher. ‘It’s not superb to alter strategies.’ A CDC spokesperson stated the difficulty might be addressed however declined to say how.” • Little doubt. Usually, I’d be up in arms concerning the lack of a proxy for case knowledge, however AFAIAK, Biobot’s enterprise mannequin doesn’t contain monetizing the info, and as I’ve stated, it’s an excellent guess Verily’s does (as a result of in any other case why muscle in with a lowball bid?) Since I believe monetizing wastewater knowledge — and little doubt integrating it with location knowledge, search knowledge, and so forth. — is a dystopian venture, I’m with Biobot quickly. And I hope they produce the oddly not public contract. Hey, perhaps Mandy needs a job in Silicon Valley! She is, in any case, a Democrat….

“Biobot Analytics recordsdata protest in opposition to CDC issuing wastewater surveillance contract to Verily” [WSWS]. “erily’s bid for the contract was accepted outright by the CDC, which can pay the corporate $38 million over 5 years. Biobot’s most up-to-date contract with the CDC was for $31 million over lower than 18 months, or almost three-fold increased. The funding supplied by way of varied foundations means Verily might simply underbid another contract proposition. An epidemiologist acquainted with these proceedings who requested to not be named remarked, ‘The CDC have to be dumping one thing for a bid that low.’” Hmm. Perhaps nuking the historic knowledge is the purpose? Extra: “An important subject at play is the financialization of public well being within the US by way of these private-public enterprises, whereby crucial data illness outbreak, the opioid disaster, and the inhabitants’s basic well being indices will be accrued and monopolized by big conglomerates like Alphabet. This has important implications for insurance coverage corporations, federal companies, surveillance of the inhabitants, and extra.” • No duh. To not point out the general public.

“A lapse in COVID wastewater detection is worrying scientists about distorted knowledge” [Salon]. “‘The largest subject to me doing wastewater modeling is simply its disruption,” [Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., a psychologist at Tulane University] advised Salon in a telephone interview. ‘Individuals depend on this knowledge.’” Tinfoil hat time: Maybe the burying disruption of the info, to CDC, is a characteristic, not a bug. Definitely CDC’s failure to supply a seamless transition would argue in favor of the concept. Then once more: “When the CDC equally transferred contracts within the spring of 2022 from LuminUltra to Biobot, knowledge was unavailable for 150 wastewater websites in 29 states for a number of weeks.” So CDC has type, and Hanlon’s Razor would possibly apply. Extra: “Andrew Wang, Ph.D., a well being fairness researcher at Northwestern College Feinberg Faculty of Drugs, stated he’s involved the change in contracts might change the pattern processing and analyses in a approach that forestalls Verily’s knowledge from being straight in contrast with Biobot’s tons of of web sites. The “bumpy” switch is lowering an already inadequate surveillance system, Wang stated.” In the meantime, CDC’s personal tracker is awful, what a shock: “Hoerger stated he’d wish to see the CDC’s wastewater system ramp up the variety of testing websites it contains and make its knowledge extra available. ‘It could have been nice in the event that they used their funding to do the types of analyses that I’m doing and that others are doing to estimate instances, to make forecasts and to take their uncooked wastewater knowledge and put it into metrics that individuals truly care about,’ Hoerger stated.”

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with persona modifications therefrom.

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“SARS-CoV-2 virus discovered emigrate inside neurons and infect the mind” [Pasteur Institute, Medical Xpress]. “For the primary time, researchers on the Institut Pasteur and Université Paris Cité have demonstrated, in an animal mannequin, a attribute frequent to a number of SARS-CoV-2 variants: the power to contaminate the central nervous system. The examine confirms that SARS-CoV-2 is able to infecting human neurons in vitro and migrating into axons, the nerve cell projections that carry data…. ‘On this examine, we demonstrated that an infection of the olfactory bulb is frequent to all variants and never linked to any explicit one, nor to any explicit scientific manifestation akin to anosmia,’ explains Guilherme Dias de Melo, first writer of the examine and researcher within the Institut Pasteur’s Lyssavirus, Epidemiology and Neuropathology Unit…. By this examine, we’ve got characterised the neurotropism of SARS-CoV-2. For all of the variants studied, ,” concludes Hervé Bourhy, final writer of the examine and head of the Institut Pasteur’s Lyssavirus, Epidemiology and Neuropathology Unit.” • Yikes. Be aware that the mind an infection doesn’t essentially produce anosmia; however it could, relying on the variant. Does some intelligent programmer want to construct a screen-scraping “Yankee Candle Assessment Index™”?

Elite Maleficence

The UK’s Dominic Cummings (!) from 2021 (!!):

I might have missed it, however I don’t recall this getting any play in any respect.

The Jackpot

I’ve been considering alongside these traces for awhile:


I’m extra hopeful than this account. Nonetheless, our civilizational response to the pandemic persuades me that one thing on this scale is occurring (although naturally we’d like a “mechanism,” traditionally located, after all).

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Case Knowledge

From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 30:

Lambert right here: Circumstances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card!

Regional knowledge:

• “Biobot Analytics recordsdata protest in opposition to CDC issuing wastewater surveillance contract to Verily” [WSWS] “What emerges from the resumption of Biobot’s evaluation on Friday is that [as I’ve been muttering for some time]. In early October, scientist Mike Hoerger, the founding director of Louisiana’s HealthPsych, estimated that by the tip of October transmission charges can be upwards of 745,000 instances per day.” • For extra on Biobot, see beneath Testing, supra.


NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB. trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:

Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.


Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 30:

Hospitalization is leveling out, too. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. October 21:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?


NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 23:

0.7%. Slight improve. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:

Lambert right here: Slight improve. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 9:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden huge BA.2.86 look.


NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,180,403 – 1,180,376 = 27 (27 * 365 = 9855 deaths per 12 months, right now’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 27:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Dallas’s basic enterprise exercise index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -19.2 in October of 2023, down from -18.1 within the prior month, and marking the 18th consecutive damaging studying to recommend a sustained deterioration in enterprise circumstances.”

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As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 32 Concern (earlier shut: 23 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 30 at 1:52:19 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 185. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most! • The goat sacrificers are going to defile the Al Aqsa mosque, and the Rapture Index is down? I hardly had them within the contrarian field!

Class Warfare

“New York Occasions tech staff to strike over return-to-office guidelines” [Reuters]. “Tech staff on the New York Occasions (NYT.N) plan to strike for half a day on Monday, accusing the writer of making an attempt to unilaterally drive them again to the workplace….The New York Occasions issued its return-to-office coverage earlier than the tech guild was acknowledged early final 12 months, when staff voted 404-88 to hitch the NewsGuild of New York, making TTG the most important tech union within the U.S. with bargaining rights. Tech staff on the union have been in contract talks with the corporate for greater than a 12 months. ‘The Occasions is no longer solely refusing to acknowledge our rights to discount on return-to-office however is now going a step additional and utilizing it as a tactic to intimidate us,’ stated Kathy Zhang, unit chair for the guild that features software program engineers and knowledge analysts.”

“The Secretive Trade Devouring the U.S. Economic system” [The Atlantic]. “The publicly traded firm is disappearing. In 1996, about 8,000 corporations have been listed within the U.S. inventory market. Since then, the nationwide economic system has grown by almost $20 trillion. The inhabitants has elevated by 70 million folks. And but, right now, the variety of American public corporations stands at fewer than 4,000. How can that be? One reply is that the private-equity business is devouring them. … In 2000, private-equity corporations managed about 4 % of whole U.S. company fairness. By 2021, that quantity was nearer to twenty %. In different phrases, personal fairness has been rising almost 5 occasions sooner than the U.S. economic system as an entire…. Most cautious educational research discover that though private-equity funds barely outperformed the inventory market on common previous to the early 2000s, they now not achieve this. Once you have in mind their excessive charges, they seem like a worse funding than a easy index fund.” • As Yves has been saying for a while.

Information of the Wired

“How deep is the mind? The shallow mind speculation” [Nature]. “Deep studying and predictive coding architectures generally assume that inference in neural networks is hierarchical. Nevertheless, largely uncared for in deep studying and predictive coding architectures is the neurobiological proof that every one hierarchical cortical areas, increased or decrease, venture to and obtain indicators straight from subcortical areas. Given these neuroanatomical information, right now’s dominance of cortico-centric, hierarchical architectures in deep studying and predictive coding networks is extremely questionable; such architectures are prone to be lacking important computational rules the mind makes use of. On this Perspective, we current the shallow mind speculation: hierarchical cortical processing is built-in with a massively parallel course of to which subcortical areas considerably contribute. This shallow structure exploits the computational capability of cortical microcircuits and thalamo-cortical loops that aren’t included in typical hierarchical deep studying and predictive coding networks. We argue that the shallow mind structure gives a number of crucial advantages over deep hierarchical constructions and a extra full depiction of how mammalian brains obtain quick and versatile computational capabilities.” • So, ML is bullshit? What a shock! And what a vindication of Conway’s Regulation! The perfessors and Silicon Valley bros used the org chart for his or her structure!

“Assyrian Ladies of Letters”” [Archeology]. ” As was executed with a lot Assyrian correspondence, one or each of Zizizi’s mother and father would have taken a stone cylinder that hung from a wire round their neck and rolled it throughout the envelope’s floor, making a ribbonlike impression or seal. Her mom’s seal depicts tall deerlike figures with lengthy horns standing upright, each leaning on a employees. This seal was distinctive to Ishtar-bashti and functioned like an ID, signaling to Zizizi that the letter was certainly from her mom…. Almost 4,000 years later, archaeologists found the offended missive throughout excavations on the website of the traditional metropolis in central Turkey, now often known as Kültepe, a low, grassy plain topped by a tall mound. Greater than 23,000 cuneiform tablets have been uncovered on the website. Of those, epigrapher and Assyriologist Cécile Michel of the French Nationwide Middle for Scientific Analysis has curated and interpreted greater than 300 that bear letters written by or to girls who belonged to a extremely literate Assyrian service provider class.” • Stone cylinders do have the benefit that they’re far much less straightforward to hack…

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:

Carla writes: “Beautyberry simply beginning to strut its stuff.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on the best way to ship a examine. Thanks!

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