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HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 10/27/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 10/27/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Music of the Day

Australian Pelican, Carawine Gorge Camp Space, East Pilbara, Western Australia, Australia. “2 Feeding in water shallows inlet of a outlet channel. 1/2 moon. In a position to see fish however I did see some [go] handed which they missed.” Extra splashing!

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“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Our Famously Free Press


Time for the Countdown Clock!

“Trump leads Biden amongst ‘double-haters’ in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: ballot” [New York Post]. “Donald Trump has a slender benefit over President Biden amongst voters who dislike each major-party front-runners throughout three key battleground states, a Democrat-commissioned ballot has discovered. The previous president leads the present president 51% to 48% amongst so-called “double-haters” in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in response to the survey carried out by Democratic agency GQR on behalf of pro-Biden tremendous PAC Unite the Nation, first reported by NBC Information.”

* * *

“U.S. legal professional says probe of Biden-Ukraine ties, $10M bribe hamstrung by DOJ, FBI” [Washington Times]. “The U.S. legal professional assigned to look into the Biden household’s offers in Ukraine, together with allegations of pocketing a $10 million bribe, informed Home lawmakers that the Justice Division and FBI considerably hobbled his investigation….. A key piece of proof below Mr. Brady’s evaluate was the transcript of an interview with one of many FBI’s most credible confidential human sources who stated he was informed that then-Vice President Biden and his son Hunter Biden every accepted a $5 million bribe from the proprietor of Ukrainian vitality agency Burisma. Mr. Brady decided that the allegation was credible sufficient to warrant additional investigation and alerted three U.S. legal professional’s workplaces, together with the Delaware workplace investigating Hunter Biden on tax fraud prices. None of them adopted up.”

* * *

“Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips launches a White Home bid, difficult Biden” [NBC]. “Requested if he was operating for president subsequent 12 months, Phillips stated, ‘I’m. I’ve to.’ ‘I cannot sit nonetheless, I cannot be quiet within the face of numbers which can be so clearly saying we’re going to be going through an emergency subsequent November,’ Phillips added. Biden’s marketing campaign didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark Thursday evening. Phillips, 54, has been a staunch critic of Biden’s re-election bid, citing a need for a youthful chief to exchange the 80-year-old president, and has beforehand known as on different candidates to problem him. ‘As a Democrat, I like Joe Biden. He saved this nation. He can cement his legacy,’ Phillips stated in an August interview on NBC Information’ ‘Meet the Press.’ ‘My actual name to motion proper now just isn’t about me. The decision to motion is to ask the president to go the torch.’ ‘Enter the first, my pals,’ Phillips added later within the interview. All people who’s on the bench, meet the second. Don’t wait 5 years. We want you now.’” • All people into the pool!

“55 Issues You Have to Know About Dean Phillips” [Politico]. “23. He and his spouse have a Norwich Terrier named Henry.” • Fantastic. How’s Henry within the biting division?

“Democratic U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips launches longshot bid for presidency” [Star-Tribune]. “Phillips began the marketing campaign roll-out late Thursday and filed for New Hampshire’s presidential main on Friday. He joyfully made his option to his marketing campaign bus Friday morning on one of the vital politically consequential days of his profession and stated ‘it’s time for change. It’s time for individuals with totally different views, totally different backgrounds, totally different political views, to return collectively.’ However not lengthy after, Phillips extra immediately confronted Biden’s standing. ‘The one particular person serving to Donald Trump proper now, I’m afraid, is President Biden, and that’s the drawback,’ Phillips informed reporters…. Phillips has a conceivable path to victory in New Hampshire as a result of Biden has chosen to not seem on the state’s main poll. Biden strongly helps the Democratic Nationwide Committee’s reshuffled order of state presidential primaries, which locations South Carolina forward of New Hampshire. And New Hampshire is defying the DNC by looking for to nonetheless maintain its main first. Which means the one Democrats on New Hampshire’s main poll could possibly be Phillips, creator Marianne Williamson and different lesser-known candidates. Some Democrats in New Hampshire are anticipated to prepare a write-in marketing campaign for Biden. ‘I wish to converse for the exhausted majority in America. The individuals who know that we have now reached a degree the place we have now obtained to cease the nonsense,’ Phillips informed reporters because the day started.” • Betting, it will appear, on Biden’s medical standing.

* * *

“Meet RFK Jr.’s eclectic, ragtag donor military threatening Biden and Trump in 2024” [Washington Examiner]. “An English rock star not keen on COVID-19 lockdowns, a left-wing movie director who has come below fireplace for his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a billionaire safety agency founder with ties to Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. On its face, these three characters could not essentially appear to have a complete lot in frequent. What they do share, nevertheless, is bankrolling the long-shot White Home bid for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a Democrat turned unbiased who thinks he has what it takes to unseat President Joe Biden within the 2024 presidential election…. Cash doesn’t lie, both. Between July and September, Kennedy raked in a powerful $8.7 million in marketing campaign donations. That’s $470,000 greater than the third quarter haul for ex-United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, who at 8.3% polls third amongst Republican presidential hopefuls. Throughout that very same interval, it’s additionally $758,000 extra mixed than contributions to each Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Vice President Mike Pence — whose campaigns have struggled to achieve traction.” Additionally Timothy Mellon, Gavin de Becker, and Abby Rockefeller, billionaires all. Extra: “It’s a singular donor cohort, together with others who’ve given to Kennedy, and underscores how the candidate is pulling money from throughout the political spectrum.” • Many others listed.

“He Was As soon as a Favourite of the Proper. Now, Mike Pence Can’t Get a Crowd of 15 to a Pizza Ranch” [Politico]. “Iowa inflicts its personal quadrennial and peculiar political indignities and hazing rituals on candidates. However few have submitted to them so totally as Pence, who even his personal aides admit should ship a shock end right here subsequent January to maintain his decades-long presidential ambitions alive. He was the one candidate to truly trip a bike at Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s July Roast and Experience. He spent extra time on the Iowa State Truthful than every other candidate.” • Commentary:

Politics is a tough recreation.

Republican Funhouse

“How Mike Johnson, One in every of Congress’ Staunchest Non secular Conservatives, Grew to become Second in Line to the President” [People]. “Johnson’s political positions are largely attributed to his ultraconservative non secular views, which have led him to combat for prayer in public faculties and foyer towards abortion and same-sex marriage…. In one editorial written in 2004, Johnson espouses help for the Protection of Marriage Act, which banned the federal recognition of same-sex marriage till being discovered unconstitutional in 2015.” • DOMA having been signed by Invoice Clinton…..

“How Mike Johnson Went from Relative Obscurity to Speaker of the Home” [The New Yorker]. “The important thing to Johnson’s present standing amongst Home Republicans is his function within the aftermath of the 2020 election. Trump’s refusal to simply accept the consequence put his congressional supporters in a bind. Their base shared Trump’s perception within the illegitimacy of the result, however privately the Social gathering’s high leaders admitted that the President was unhinged…. Johnson had proposed another that allowed members to skirt the query. In keeping with an in depth report, printed final 12 months within the Occasions, he instructed that Home Republicans may vote towards certifying the outcomes not simply due to fraud, which nobody may show, however on arcane authorized grounds. ‘Constitutional infirmity,’ Johnson known as them. Many states had modified their voting procedures in response to the pandemic. However within the course of, he argued, they’d violated the Structure. In keeping with Johnson’s concept, they may solely make adjustments to election protocol with the approval of every state’s personal legislature; consequently, Republicans may rule out the outcomes.” • That is the one helpful nugget in a babbling brook of aghastide, and it’s incorrect (and no matter occurred the New Yorker’s vaunted fact-checking division?). I went and located Johnson’s amicus temporary–

“Movement for Depart to File Temporary Amicus Curiae and Temporary Amicus Curiae of U.S. Consultant Mike Johnson and 125 Different Members of the U.S. Home of Representatives in Help of Plaintiff’s Movement for Depart to File a Invoice of Grievance and Movement for a Preliminary Injunction” (PDF) [Supreme Court of the United States]. An amicus temporary for December 2020’s Texas v. Pennsylvania, which is a little bit of a seize bag, involving the “Electors Clause” (extra later), intrastate variations within the therapy of voters, and “materials illegality” through the balloting course of within the defendant states (PA, GA, MI, WI).

• The treatment sought by TX Lawyer Normal Ken Paxton in Texas was “[to] enjoin the usage of illegal election outcomes with out evaluate and ratification by the Defendant States’ legislatures and remand to the Defendant States’ respective legislatures to nominate Presidential Electors in a way per the Electors Clause and pursuant to three U.S.C. § 2.” The Supreme Courtroom declined to listen to the case based mostly on standing: “[T]he justices defined that Texas lacked a authorized proper to sue, generally known as standing, and didn’t have a authorized curiosity in how different states carried out their elections. In consequence, the courtroom rejected Texas’ lawsuit with out contemplating the deserves of the state’s case. Just about all authorized consultants had given the lawsuit little probability of succeeding from the second it was filed.”

• What Johnson did in his amicus temporary was toss out the woo woo (“materials illegality”), toss out differential therapy of voters, and focus solely on the Electors Clause: “Artwork. II, § 1, cl. 2, directs that: “Every State shall appoint, , a Variety of Electors, equal to the entire Variety of Senators and Representatives to which the State could also be entitled within the Congress.” From there, Johnson exhibits that within the defendant states, balloting processes (mail drops, and many others.) had been actually modified by officers within the legislative department, with out legislative approval. Johnson concludes: “As members of the federal legislature, these amici search to guard the constitutional function of state legislatures in figuring out the way by which states select their electors.” Now, each the Texas temporary (partly) and Johnson’s temporary (wholly) appear to be based mostly on the “unbiased state legislature concept,” which is controversial to say the least, however Johnson’s temporary is concentrated and to the purpose, not like Paxton’s prolix screed. It’s additionally a bit of intelligent lawyering that did the Republicans an enormous, huge favor: It gave them a quick they may signal onto, each pleasing Trump and above all not shopping for into the woo woo being emitted by Trump’s circus of bent attorneys. No surprise he’s such a likeable fellow. Commentary:

I believe Derek Man is a superb account, and Mike Johnson (R-Brylcream) muscling in on it’s to be deplored.

* * *

“The long run appears to be like Republican” [The Spectator]. “[W]hatever Trump may need achieved proper or incorrect with respect to Covid in 2021, the pandemic would have remained a supply of unhealthy headlines. With Afghanistan and Covid as defining problems with the primary half of Trump’s second time period, congressional Republicans would have confronted brutal leads to the 2022 midterms. Six-year midterms are traditionally agonizing for the occasion within the White Home. With Trump within the White Home, and in that situation surroundings, no political handicapper can have any doubt about GOP fortunes in 2022. There’s no level in guessing what would have occurred within the final two years of a second consecutive Trump time period, however given the situations above, and the truth that a two-term president has been succeeded in workplace by a member of his personal occasion solely as soon as for the reason that Nineteen Fifties, one can predict with confidence that Republicans wouldn’t be on monitor to maintain the White Home in 2024. And a youthful, extra energetic Democrat than Joe Biden could be lined as much as crush Mike Pence that November. As a substitute, Biden is president, and the Democrats are going through a grim 2024.” • Believable, or cope?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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Realignment and Legitimacy

“Usually in error however nonetheless seductive: Why we are able to’t stop election polls” [The Conversation]. “Considerably, election polling advantages from a what-else-is-there angle amongst journalists, opinion researchers, historians of public polling and politicians that no different moderately correct choices exist in sampling the general public’s views and attitudes. Intensive interviewing by political journalists, an earnest approach known as ‘shoe-leather’ reporting, sometimes has been tried by information organizations looking for a substitute for reliance on polls. However such experiments have produced little success.” • Maybe we have now polls just for narrative functions? One has to put in writing one thing, in any case.


“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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“Quantitative errors within the Cochrane evaluate on ‘Bodily interventions to interrupt or cut back the unfold of respiratory viruses’” (preprint) [arXiv]. “Our evaluation of the Cochrane evaluate and Loeb 2022 up to now demonstrates that these empirical research make the most of approaches for evaluation that make unfounded assumptions in estimating results. Whereas the strategies are typical, they observe a pro-forma context that isn’t grounded within the circumstances of the trials and observational research. On this part we introduce further errors as a result of lacking knowledge, together with on non-study individuals, in addition to compounding results.” And:

Determine 2: A failure to guage assumptions and incorporate mathematical equations that correspond to
research circumstances results in incorrect conclusions. The primary row exhibits an ordinary illustration of estimates
of results and confidence intervals. In lots of randomized managed trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses, random
results equations (second row and Appendix A) are used to account for the influence of unobserved results that
end in random variations between research teams, however don’t tackle systematic biases. Rows 3 by means of 8
within the desk present . Examples of how
they seem in such research are described within the textual content, together with adjustments in variables, corrected equations for
outcomes (dashed rectangles) and penalties for conclusions. Conclusions revised based mostly on these corrections
are dramatically totally different from these drawn from particular person research and meta-analyses. The variations
prolong to estimates of impact dimension, confidence intervals, statistical significance, and the magnitude of profit.”

Holy [family blog]!


“2% of children and seven% of adults have gotten the brand new COVID pictures, US knowledge present” [Associated Press]. “One skilled known as the charges ‘abysmal.’ The numbers, introduced Thursday at a gathering held by the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, come from a nationwide survey of 1000’s of People, carried out two weeks in the past. The info additionally indicated that just about 40% of adults stated they most likely or positively won’t get the shot. An identical share of fogeys stated they didn’t plan to vaccinate their youngsters. Within the late summer time, authorities well being officers made the nation’s COVID-19 vaccination marketing campaign extra just like the annual flu marketing campaign. Officers permitted up to date pictures which have a single goal, an omicron descendant named XBB.1.5. They changed vaccines that focused the unique coronavirus pressure and a a lot earlier omicron model. Final month, the CDC beneficial the brand new pictures for everybody 6 months and older.” • When you take a look at CDC’s variant chart (recent at this time) you will notice that XBB.1.5 barely registers; it’s final month’s information, or the month earlier than that. I’m not a vax maven, and I might guess that the up to date shot does apply to the brand new variants (to some extent), however what horrid failure in scientific comumunication this story is, if that’s true. Amidst the bigger failure of seven% takeup. And but there’s Mandy, swanning concerning the nation unmasked, being photographed grinning at individuals. (NOTE: I might guess most individuals consider flu vaccines as nice-to-have, not have-to-have. I definitely do. So why CDC thought harnessing it’s Covid effort to the present flu infratructure would do something aside from lower uptake is past me.

“Learn how to get the brand new COVID vaccine free of charge, with or with out insurance coverage” [CBS]. “Federal well being authorities are urging People to succeed in out to their insurers after reviews of some individuals encountering bother getting their new COVID-19 vaccine shot free of charge. These points have arisen regardless of applications and necessities designed to make the pictures accessible at no out-of-pocket price for all People. The hurdles are new to this 12 months’s industrial rollout of COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer [but not, apparently, Novavax], which at the moment are listed for greater than $100 on the personal market. Earlier through the pandemic, vaccines and boosters had all been paid for by the federal authorities.” 100 bucks is reasonable for a coronary heart assault, so its arduous to account for the uptake points on that foundation. Extra: “‘There have been numerous [and] delivery of vaccines,’ Dr. Céline Gounder, CBS Information medical contributor and editor-at-large for public well being at KFF Well being Information, stated on ‘CBS Mornings’ Tuesday. Officers say this 12 months’s hiccups in protection of the pictures ought to be short-term, as insurers and vaccinators work to iron out points within the programs that deal with billing for the pictures.” • After all! The billing codes! BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!! The billing codes that shouldn’t even exist. We had a single payer system. Then we removed it. Then every little thing screwed up. Maybe there’s a lesson right here?


‘Tis a thriller!

No latest anecdata on Yankee Candles, nevertheless.

“Serotonin discount in post-acute sequelae of viral an infection” [Cell]. From the Summary: “A number of hypotheses have been formulated to elucidate the etiology of PASC, together with viral persistence, persistent irritation, hypercoagulability, and autonomic dysfunction. Right here, we suggest a mechanism that hyperlinks all 4 hypotheses in a single pathway and offers actionable insights for therapeutic interventions. We discover that PASC are related to serotonin discount. Viral an infection and sort I interferon-driven irritation cut back serotonin by means of three mechanisms: diminished intestinal absorption of the serotonin precursor tryptophan; platelet hyperactivation and thrombocytopenia, which impacts serotonin storage; and enhanced MAO-mediated serotonin turnover. Peripheral serotonin discount, in flip, impedes the exercise of the vagus nerve and thereby impairs hippocampal responses and reminiscence. These findings present a attainable clarification for neurocognitive signs related to viral persistence in Lengthy COVID, which can prolong to different post-viral syndromes.”

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with persona adjustments therefrom.

Airborne AIDS:


For these whose reminiscence of the AIDS disaster is best than mine, didn’t AIDS initially current as a [cough] “gentle flu“? And didn’t AIDS even have epithelial results?

* * *

Elite Maleficence

I’m glad to see 60 minutes concentrate on #CovidIsAirborne:

OTOH, the exoneration of WHO, CDC, the general public well being administration, and two Administrations is a bit arduous to take.

“How Cleaning soap Works: The Science Behind Handwashing” [Pfizer]. “Whereas there’s nonetheless a lot we don’t perceive about COVID-19, there’s one piece of recommendation that consultants within the well being care neighborhood agree on: washing your arms with cleaning soap and water is among the only methods individuals can hold from getting sick, and from passing the virus to others.” • To be truthful, right here’s Pfizer on masks, although they gained’t use the phrases “airborne” or “aerosol,” sticking to the obfuscatory ”

* * *

Case Information

NEVER TO BE UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 2:

Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?

Regional knowledge:

Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.


From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB. trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:

Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.


Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 27:

Leveling at a excessive plateau (which earlier peaks didn’t do). (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. October 14:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?


NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 23:

0.7%. Slight improve. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 21:

Lambert right here: Slight improve. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 9:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden huge BA.2.86 look.


NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,180,376 – 1,180,288 = 88 (88 * 365 = 32,120 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 27:

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

• Possibly I ought to junk this chart….

Stats Watch

Private Revenue: “United States Private Revenue” [Trading Economics]. “Private earnings in the USA elevated by 0.3% from a month earlier in September 2023, following a 0.4% rise in August and barely beneath market consensus of 0.4%.”

* * *

Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 26 Worry (earlier shut: 25 Excessive Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 26 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 27 at 1:45:02 PM ET.


“Maine Democrat requires assault weapons ban after previous opposition” [The Hill]. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine):

‘Out of concern of this harmful world that we reside in, in my dedication to guard my very own daughter and spouse in our personal neighborhood, due to a false confidence that our neighborhood was above this and that we could possibly be in full management, amongst many different misjudgments, I’ve opposed efforts to ban lethal weapons of warfare, just like the assault rifle used to hold out this crime,’ Golden stated at a press convention Thursday.

“The time has now come for me to take accountability for this failure, which is why I now name on the USA Congress to ban assault rifles, just like the one utilized by the sick perpetrator of this mass killing in my hometown of Lewiston, Maine,” he continued. “For the nice of my neighborhood, I’ll work with any colleague to get this achieved within the time that I’ve left in Congress.”

“To the individuals of Lewiston, my constituents all through the 2nd District, to those that misplaced family members and to those that have been harmed, I express regret and help as I search to place an finish to those horrible shootings,” he stated.

“‘How A lot Blood Is Your Enjoyable Value?’” [The Alantic]. “Folks personal AR-15s as a result of they assume they’re horny and funky and manly. As a result of they’ve barely any recoil and Military surplus ammo is reasonable. As a result of their buddies have them, so why shouldn’t they? As a result of they’re toys—probably the most harmful toys in America, however toys nonetheless…. And if the previous 24 hours have satisfied me of something, it’s that the one method issues are ever going to get higher is that if extra gun homeowners begin asking our pals the one query that issues: How a lot blood is your enjoyable price?”


“Half of US states had antiviral shortages in 2022-23 flu season” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “Over half of US state and territorial public well being preparedness administrators (PHPDs) surveyed stated they skilled shortages of flu antiviral medication equivalent to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) through the 2022-23 respiratory virus season, forcing many to show to nationwide or state stockpiles…. ‘It’s attainable that native antiviral shortages had been as a result of earlier and better than anticipated influenza exercise within the 2022-2023 influenza season in contrast with the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 influenza seasons, with consequent increased demand for oseltamivir,’ the research authors wrote, including that the outcomes spotlight the necessity to monitor native and nationwide antiviral provide distribution.” • I ponder why. ‘Tis a thriller!

Information you should utilize:

Zeitgeist Watch

I meant to pair these two yesterday, however misplaced the second:

Yikes (1):

Yikes (2):

As soon as once more:

I hand over. Why can’t they?

However on a extra optimistic be aware:

Class Warfare

“Mayan Seeds Towards Feminist Monoculture” [Counterpunch]. “‘Feminist pals informed me: Aura, you’re a lady first after which you’re Mayan. And we obtained entangled in these discussions that made no sense to me (…) Whoever is prioritizing a stage of the wrestle is talking from one place, they’re doing politics from one place and they’re doing academia from one place. The people who find themselves combating as a result of they’re ladies should not being threatened with the menace that their individuals could possibly be exterminated, that the river could possibly be carried away, as a result of they take pleasure in sure secure circumstances that enable them to say ‘now I combat as a result of I’m a girl’, however that’s not the case for indigenous ladies and rural ladies.””

Information of the Wired

“Grammar Adjustments How We See, an Australian Language Exhibits” [Scientific American]. “Subject linguists, whose work brings them recurrently into contact with the gorgeous variety of the world’s languages, even have lengthy doubted the concept that an individual’s native language has no influence on their thought processes…. The research Levinson described demonstrated a transparent relation between the grammar of a participant’s language—particularly, the way in which phrases had been ordered in it—and the way in which the particular person assessed an image. For instance, with an image of a girl washing a toddler, English audio system, who perceived the lady as the topic, tended to take a look at the lady first…. Tseltal audio system did it in another way. The grammar of Tseltal, spoken in Chiapas, Mexico, obliges audio system to supply a verb first. So when a bunch from Levinson’s laboratory used eye monitoring to know sentence planning and manufacturing in Tseltal, the researchers discovered that audio system seen the lady and the kid extra evenly, trying backwards and forwards between the 2. Psycholinguists name this relational encoding… Murrinhpatha [has no word order]. In that preliminary window the Murrinhpatha audio system had been trying evenly backwards and forwards throughout each characters within the scene, getting a way of your entire occasion. Then, as soon as they’d determined which phrase order they had been going to make use of, they began to look primarily on the character they talked about first. At that time an individual who produced a sentence that began with, say, the lady as a substitute of the kid spent extra time trying on the lady. If as a substitute they produced a sentence that began with the kid, they spent extra time trying on the youngster. Primarily, Nordlinger explains, “what a speaker checked out first in a sustained method after the preliminary 400-millisecond window was the factor that they talked about first.’” • Bordieu stans: I might file this below “habitus.” Sure?

“A Third of Chocolate Merchandise Are Excessive in Heavy Metals, CR’s Exams Discover” [Consumer Reports]. “As anticipated, darkish sweets tended to have increased ranges of heavy metals and milk chocolate decrease. ‘However each product we examined had detectable quantities of lead and cadmium,’ says James E. Rogers, PhD, director and appearing head of product security testing at CR. ‘Sixteen of the 48 merchandise had quantities above CR’s ranges of concern for a minimum of one of many heavy metals—in some instances greater than twice our restrict—however we did discover safer choices in every class of chocolate merchandise.’”

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “I’ve by no means had a digital camera that might duplicate the vibrancy of crimson nicely. I’d fear that it’s me doing one thing incorrect, however I discover on television exhibits that crimson jumps round when anybody is sporting it, so I believe it’s extra possible that wave size isn’t as simply contained as others. That by no means stops me from operating as much as a fantastically vibrant crimson rose although, so right here’s one more try gone afoul.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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