Tuesday, May 21, 2024
HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 10/26/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 10/26/2023 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Track of the Day

Brown Pelican (Atlantic), Ria Maya Restaurante, Río Lagartos, Yucatán, Mexico. “Gentle, grating calls from pelicans begging for scraps. Plenty of splashing as they vied for fish thrown into the water. Calls most frequently given after one of many birds efficiently scooped up the fish. Principally the identical birds as in ML80533521, however subsequent to a ship two homes down from Ria Maya.” A lot of the Pelican recordings are like this! Plenty of splashing!

* * *

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“Will First Modification or the 14th prevail in case over Donald Trump’s identify on Minnesota’s presidential major poll?” [MinnPost]. “The 14th Modification to the U.S. Structure says no who has engaged in ‘rebel or rise up’ ought to maintain public workplace.” No, that’s what it says. Not “individual,” however “an officer of america,” the one a part of the clause that might presumably — however, arguably, incorrectly — be utilized to a President. Extra: “The First Modification offers individuals the proper to affiliate and kind political teams that help political candidates…. On Nov. 2 at 9 a.m. within the Minnesota Supreme Courtroom chambers, legal professionals for a gaggle attempting to bar Donald Trump from showing on subsequent 12 months’s presidential choice major poll will try and have him labeled an insurrectionist…. Dealing with off towards these petitioners can be legal professionals for the Minnesota Republican Social gathering and for the Trump marketing campaign, one as a proper intervener and one as a buddy of the courtroom. ‘The Petition’s many factual inaccuracies, gaps, and distortions come principally underneath one overarching theme: Petitioners haven’t any proof that President Trump supposed or supported any violent or illegal exercise in search of to overthrow the federal government of america, both on January 6 or at some other time,” the marketing campaign legal professionals state of their response (extra on that under). They are saying voters, not courts, ought to determine whether or not Trump could be elected once more. The state social gathering makes a distinct argument — that it has a First Modification proper to decide on its candidates and to run its personal course of for choosing delegates to the Republican Nationwide Committee. Courts have been very protecting of the proper to affiliation contained within the First Modification and will achieve this on this case, the social gathering’s legal professionals argue.” • If I have been a Supreme Courtroom justice, in search of a strategy to make the entire case go away and “let the individuals determine” not solely what an rebel is, however what an insurrectionist is, I might discover the “officer of america” restriction fairly compelling.

“Colorado choose paves means for trial on whether or not 14th Modification disqualifies Trump from workplace” [CNN]. “A Colorado choose has rejected one other try by former President Donald Trump to throw out a lawsuit in search of to dam him from the 2024 presidential poll primarily based on the 14th Modification’s ‘insurrectionist ban.’ The ruling Wednesday from Colorado District Decide Sarah Wallace clears the best way for an unprecedented trial to start subsequent week, to find out if Trump is disqualified from returning to the White Home due to his position within the January 6, 2021, rebel. That is the fifth unsuccessful bid by Trump to throw out the Colorado case, which is considered one of a number of pending fits attempting to derail his candidacy primarily based on the 14th Modification…. In a 24-page ruling, Wallace rejected Trump’s argument that questions on his eligibility needs to be dealt with by Congress, not courts. She additionally rejected Trump’s argument that the Colorado election officers don’t have the facility to implement the so-called ‘insurrectionist ban,’ which is enshrined in Part 3 of the 14th Modification. ‘The Courtroom holds that states can, and have, utilized Part 3 pursuant to state statutes with out federal enforcement laws,’ Wallace wrote…. She mentioned the trial will give attention to a number of key questions, together with whether or not the occasions of January 6 ‘constituted an rebel’ and whether or not Trump ‘engaged’ in rebel.” • Wallace was appointed to the bench by Colorado Governor Jared Polis, a Democrat. Jena Griswold, the Colorado Secretary of State who would “disqualify” Trump from the poll, is a Democrat. So what we’ve got here’s a change within the Constitutional order I’ve identified from the start: The distinctive competence of the trendy political social gathering is management over the poll. And right here members of 1 social gathering would strike the identify of one other social gathering’s candidate off the poll. Deserves of the case apart, I can’t see that taking place properly in any respect.

“Trump recordsdata to look on Colorado presidential poll” [Colorado Newsline]. “Former President Donald Trump has formally indicated to Colorado election officers that he intends to run for president within the state in 2024. Trump submitted candidate paperwork whilst he faces a authorized problem to his eligibility to run in Colorado, and state approval of his candidacy is on maintain pending developments in that case. The secretary of state’s workplace obtained from Trump on Oct. 11 a ‘assertion of intent’ to run within the presidential major, in response to paperwork Newsline obtained from the secretary’s workplace. The doc attests that Trump is no less than 35, has lived within the nation no less than 14 years and is a pure born U.S. citizen. The house tackle he submitted corresponds to that of the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Additionally submitted as a part of Trump’s utility to run was a $500 test from his marketing campaign to the secretary of state’s workplace, and official approval of his candidacy from the Colorado Republican Social gathering. No different candidates have but submitted ballot-access paperwork for the presidential major in Colorado. Submission of candidate paperwork to the secretary of state’s workplace, sometimes a routine step within the ballot-access course of, carries uncommon significance in Trump’s case, since a set of plaintiffs is suing Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold in state courtroom in an effort to dam him from the poll subsequent 12 months.”

“Arizona secretary of state: No alternative however to place Trump on poll if he qualifies” [AZ Central]. “Secretary of State Adrian Fontes says he should qualify Donald Trump for Arizona’s presidential poll if Trump recordsdata an utility and may present he has been licensed for the poll in no less than two different states. Fontes, who in August mentioned it was an ‘open query’ whether or not a provision of the U.S. Structure may maintain Trump off the poll, mentioned a state regulation gives one other path to poll standing and he’s obliged to stick to it. That regulation states that as a substitute of Arizona’s necessities for presidential candidates to file petition signatures, a candidate can qualify so long as two different states have already got licensed the candidate for his or her ballots. At the least eight states have submitting deadlines forward of Arizona’s Dec. 11 deadline for 2024, in response to Ballotpedia. Fontes on Thursday mentioned the regulation bars him from making an unbiased resolution and as a substitute yokes him to choices made in different states. ‘It handcuffs me to 2 different states,’ mentioned Fontes, a Democrat who took workplace in January. ‘Right here’s the underside line … I’m principally a time and date stamp.’”

“How These In search of Donald Trump’s Disqualification From Operating For President Will Plunge the Election Into Chaos and Hand Trump the Presidency” [Verdict]. ” America Supreme Courtroom will make the last word dedication whether or not Part 3 is self-executing, that’s, whether or not a prison conviction is a precondition to disqualification or whether or not state officers could make that dedication on their very own. What if the Supreme Courtroom holds that Part 3 is self-executing, however that it’s as much as every particular person state to find out whether or not Trump could be on the poll? What then? …. By leaving it to the states, there are two attainable outcomes. If the Supreme Courtroom have been to depend on the concurrence in Bush v. Gore, by which Justice Clarence Thomas joined, it’s the legislature and never the courts that should determine whether or not Trump could be on the poll. At present, Republicans have management of the legislative and government branches in 22 states and the Democrats in 17, so it’s possible that Trump can be on the poll in no less than 22 states. What occurs if the opposite 17 states determine that he’s disqualified and can’t be on the poll? In 2020, 74 million voters from throughout america voted for Trump. How will tens of hundreds of thousands of voters react if they’re denied the chance to vote in 17 states? … .f the Supreme Courtroom leaves the choice to the officers in every state who run the elections, often the Secretary of State, now held by 34 Republicans, the very same state of affairs may happen. However what if the Supreme Courtroom agrees with the proponents of computerized disqualification and holds that Trump can not run for President in any respect. Do you consider that 74 million individuals will settle for that? Forty-one states allow voters to put in writing of their alternative for President. What if 88 million People vote for Trump as a write-in candidate, and primarily based upon these votes, Trump would win a majority of the electors to the Electoral Faculty?” And: “This difficulty may have been averted had the Justice Division’s particular prosecutor, Jack Smith, charged Trump with rebel or rise up or aiding our enemies, which Congress has made against the law. Regardless of a suggestion by the Home of Representatives’ Jan. 6 Choose Committee, Smith selected to not.” • And one can solely assume that Smiith didn’t as a result of he couldn’t. And I’m so previous I bear in mind when Bush v. Gore was “good for one time solely” (“Our consideration is proscribed to the current circumstances”). Now it’s being cited as a precedent, like a zombie’s hand reaching up out of grave-soil.

Our Famously Free Press

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“Donald Trump Gaining Floor in State No Republican Has Received in 40 Years” [Newsweek]. N = 1225. “Donald Trump has slowly gained floor within the blue state of New York, the place the margin between the previous president and Democrat Joe Biden has considerably shortened between 2020 and now. In response to the newest ballot by the Siena Analysis Institute, a part of the Siena Faculty in Loudonville, New York, Trump is lagging behind incumbent Biden by as a lot as 9 share factors in his dwelling state—a lot lower than what was reported a month in the past, when he nonetheless trailed the Democrat by 21 share factors. The numbers, although nonetheless in favor of Biden, present that Trump has been gaining help in New York concurrently the Democratic president has been shedding it. When in comparison with Biden’s victory within the state in 2020, which crushed Trump 61 to twenty-eight p.c, the present outcomes communicate of the disaster of recognition suffered by the Democratic president.”

* * *

“Biden Has a Youth-Vote Downside. His Israel Coverage Is Making It Worse.” [Slate]. “President Joe Biden has a severe age downside, and it’s not that he’s 80: It’s his dreadful standing with youth voters. If he loses reelection subsequent November—even at this early stage, there are a lot of indications that this can be a actual chance—it’s possible that his remarkably low marks from voters underneath 40 can be seen as a significant wrongdoer. A current Quinnipiac ballot underscores Biden’s disastrous standing with the youth vote. The president’s favorability ranking has cratered out at an almost-unbelievable 25 p.c amongst registered voters underneath 35 years previous. Just a few weeks prior, a Washington Submit–ABC ballot had Trump profitable voters underneath 35 by 20 factors. (The Submit’s story notes that the ballot differs from others taken not too long ago, and that it could be an outlier. It’s not the one current presidential ballot that’s made publishers elevate an eyebrow.) Liberal commentators have been fast to dismiss these knowledge factors, whilst they proceed to pile up. It’s sensible to not overreact to particular person polls, particularly greater than a 12 months from Election Day. And but, one thing is clearly awry between Biden and the children, who’re, arguably, essentially the most vital demographic constituency for Democrats. In 2020, 60 p.c of 18-to-29-year-old voters, by far essentially the most Democratic-voting group by age, threw in for Joe Biden. It’s possible there are a lot of explanations for the slide since then: Biden, hesitant to even grant interviews to the Sunday exhibits, has carried out principally zero communications outreach to any shops or platforms that millennials and zoomers truly devour. Turning pupil mortgage funds again on earlier than truly implementing the promised mortgage debt cancellation—which by no means would have occurred with out an archconservative Supreme Courtroom’s doubtful intervention towards his preliminary proposal, after all—in all probability didn’t assist. Now Biden’s Israel coverage threatens to deepen that divide even additional. Once more: It’s sensible to not overreact to polls, however the knowledge shouldn’t be terribly ambiguous on this.”

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“A 2024 frenzy? How RFK Jr. may chip away at Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s methods” [USA Today]. “[T]listed here are two small states which have many independents and now use ranked alternative voting, which could tip their electoral votes to RFK Jr…. Let’s break down two states the place this method may play a significant position. Maine: Biden gained Maine by 9 factors in 2020, and three of its 4 electoral votes, as a consequence of its congressional allocation. Solely 35% of Maine’s voters are independents, however ranked alternative voting may change the end result. Theoretically, if Joe Biden led Kennedy 42%-32% with Trump in third place at 26%, Kennedy may win as a result of Trump voters want Kennedy over Biden by a 23-1 margin, in response to the ballot. Within the hypothetical instance above, most of Trump’s votes would reallocate to Kennedy who may simply high 50% and find yourself profitable no less than 3 of the 4 electoral votes. Alaska: Trump gained Alaska by 10 factors in 2020, however at present a whopping 55% of The Final Frontier’s voters are independents, 26% Republicans, and 14% Democrats. Alaska simply applied ranked alternative voting, and will see outcomes just like the above, if Trump led Kennedy 40% p.c to 31% with Biden at 29%, Kennedy may prevail with greater than 50% of the vote – this time taking away 3 certain Trump electoral votes. Right here’s an fascinating twist: If Biden completed second to Trump with Kennedy third, Kennedy’s voters would break to Trump, and he would win Alaska once more. But when Kennedy completed second to Trump with Biden third, Biden’s voters would push excessive and forestall Trump from profitable these electoral votes. You might even see Biden ‘propping up’ Kennedy in Alaska!” • It could definitely be entertaining if the 2024 election have been thrown into the Home, and the 2 states from “The Frozen North,” east and west, held the stability….

* * *

“After Israel go to, Newsom heads to China for local weather talks. However can he keep away from world conflicts?” [Los Angeles Times (Buff)]. “Gov. Gavin Newsom comforted a mom whose son was kidnapped by Hamas, and visited a hospital the place Israelis have been recovering from accidents from the Oct. 7 assaults. He met with high Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and noticed movies of beheadings…. The voyage marks a sudden leap into international affairs for the Democratic governor who insists he isn’t angling to run for president…. In China, Newsom goals to maintain his go to targeted on areas the place California and China can cooperate to struggle local weather change. His itinerary is stuffed with occasions meant to advertise electrical autos, offshore wind power and different clear applied sciences. He’s scheduled to signal 5 compacts with regional governments, tour manufacturing websites and go to a wetlands protect. In fostering climate-friendly partnerships with native officers, Newsom hopes to keep away from a slew of worldwide flashpoints.” • Oppo within the making:

Israel (nearly) places Newsom in play (I don’t learn about his donors). However I’m undecided whether or not a China go to means Newsom is operating or not. May very well be a millstone, whatever the contracts he brings dwelling.

“Gov. J.B. Pritzker, by no means shy about criticizing Republicans, requires ‘widespread floor’ at nationwide convention” [Chicago Tribune]. “Gov. J.B. Pritzker has gained a main spot on the nationwide progressive Democratic stage, partially by way of his historical past of scathing criticism of Republicans, together with labeling opponents as ‘extremists,’ ‘racist’ or ‘xenophobic.’ However on Wednesday, at a nationwide political convention of progressives in Washington, the second-term governor with potential presidential aspirations offered a brand new political fashion — conciliator. ‘I’m simply saying management on this time means placing in test generally your feelings concerning the assaults which might be coming and as a substitute looking for widespread floor to work with each other as a result of we’ve got to convey the temperature down on this nation and speak to 1 one other, no matter social gathering we belong to or no matter ideology we could have, as a result of we’ve got a lot to perform,’ Pritzker informed an viewers on the progressive Heart for American Progress annual concepts convention.” • That will need to have gone over huge, And it’s fairly a pivot for Pritzker. I ponder if he is aware of one thing about Biden’s well being we don’t know.

Republican Funhouse

“America’s Apocalyptic Cheerleaders” [The Sword and the Sandwich]. “Evangelical ‘love’ of Israel is the love of the patron in direction of the consumed, a hungry man for bread. Their fantasy is in the end considered one of destruction: the annihilation of the Jewish religion by way of loss of life, save an elect of 144,000 who convert to Christianity — a quantity derived from the E book of Revelations. It’s a necropolitical fantasy, one which views the tribulation with, as a put up from Calvary Chapel—the church to whom Rep. Brian Mast, who has appeared in Congress this week in an IDF uniform, belongs, put it—’pleasure, anticipation, and glee’; the top of the world is ‘the extremely anticipated kingdom. The apocalypse calls for the agony of all however the elect; to the elect it’s ecstasy. It’s rapture. The conversion and annihilation of the Jews have to be preceded by their return to and absolute management of Israel; subsequently the lives of Palestinians are nugatory and forfeit from the beginning, a road-bump on this violent fantasy that was by no means accounted for within the Revelations map. They’re an inconvenience to be disposed of, pawns to be knocked off the board so different pawns could be positioned to arrange the second of Christ’s return, the top of historical past in blood. Palestinians are lower than human on this imaginative and prescient; inconveniences at finest, devices of the Antichrist at worst. Both means, their annihilation is important. There have been many predictions of the apocalypse and plenty of preludes. On this second of loss of life and displacement, there’s pleasure for Christian observers from afar, the ecstatic terror of deliverance. What it quantities to is cheering on Armageddon from a budget seats—and directing funds to make sure it happens. It’s a grotesquerie of geopolitics and faith, and it carries undue weight in American international coverage, because of the merger of the Christian Proper and the Republican Social gathering. A recreation of chess with eternity at stake.” • My God. Depart the poor goats alone.

“Calmes: Who’s Home Speaker Mike Johnson? Matt Gaetz’s victory lap says all of it” [Los Angeles Times]. “McCarthy in his nine-month reign principally pandered to the nuts, tradition warriors and election deniers in his Home Republican majority, ever terrified of the coup that lastly got here after he twice digressed from the extremist path to truly govern — compromising with the Senate and White Home first to keep away from a debt default after which a authorities shutdown. However to the right-wingers, the shape-shifting McCarthy was at all times a poser. (Once more, they weren’t flawed.)… Gaetz and Johnson differ big-time in fashion: Gaetz is in-your-face, Johnson so amiable and nonconfrontational that he’s ‘buddy to many and an enemy to none,’ as Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York informed the Home in nominating Johnson. Therefore his unlikely elevation…. However in substance, Johnson is little totally different from Gaetz and his ilk. Johnson has described his relationship with Jordan, mentor to the far proper, as ‘like Batman and Robin.’ However Johnson’s politics are extra infused with the conservative religiosity he demonstrated in his remarks accepting the speakership. He informed the Home of his absent spouse, ‘She’s spent the final couple of weeks on her knees in prayer to the Lord. And, um, she’s a bit worn out.’… Then there’s his behind-the-scenes authorized work after the 2020 presidential election to problem electoral votes in pro-Biden states. The New York Occasions, after an investigation of Republicans’ post-election machinations, referred to as Johnson “crucial architect of the Electoral Faculty objections.” He enlisted most of his fellow Home Republicans in help of a quick to the Supreme Courtroom, but the justices declined to take the underlying case.”

“‘I killed him’: How Trump torpedoed Tom Emmer’s speaker bid” [Politico]. • That’s good.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in actual fact, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Amy Klobuchar, You Suck” [Matt Taibbi, Racket News]. “Now this individual, whose ‘humor’ persona was absolutely cooked up partially to melt a rep for throwing issues at aides, who scored roughly John Blutarsky’s grade-point common with the backing of the nationwide media institution, who managed lower than 6% of Democratic voters in her personal state, has the gall to push one of many world’s greatest media distributors to disallow voluntary entry to ‘contributors as a substitute of verified information sources.’ Klobuchar needs Jeff Bezos to verify Amazon’s dwelling surveillance robots don’t spit out even occasional solutions from a wider pool of actual human beings, together with 1000’s of unbiased contributors. The data panorama have to be a pure monopoly of ‘verified information sources.’ This Senator-to-billionaire communiqué isn’t unlawful as a result of she didn’t phrase it as an order or voice the implied menace of regulation, amongst different issues. If Bezos finally ends up complying, nonetheless, I’ve half a thoughts to sue. Endurance is sporting skinny with the relentless dedication of presidency figures — whether or not U.S. Cyber Command or a Minnesota Senator — to weed out unbiased media from the digital panorama. It’s not sufficient to have 99% of the informational area? They want all> of it?” • Enjoyable stuff!

Realignment and Legitimacy

Exceptional. Good for the ACLU:

Exceptional. Good for FIRE:

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

* * *

Covid is Airborne

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona adjustments therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

Hegemonic an infection management is rotten to the core:

“Sporting masks to forestall one epidemic could masks one other” [Journal of Infection Prevention (!!)]. “Strategies: A research-based commentary supported with current literature assessment.” • Oh, fantastic. Commentary:

I suppose the intense means to consider that is that you really want your youngsters, particularly, to be uncovered to “commensal” germs (i.e., you don’t desire a sterile atmosphere). However infections ones? By no means. (“I at all times put a bit dollop of sh*t in my youngsters’s Frosted Flakes. That means, their immune programs develop up robust!”)

* * *

Case Information

NEVER TO BE UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 2:

Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?

Regional knowledge:

Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with HV.1 a powerful second, and XBB.1.1.16.6 and FL.1.15.1 trailing. No BA.2.86. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, September 16:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:

Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 26:

Leveling out. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. October 14:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 23:

0.7%. Slight improve. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 21:

Lambert right here: Slight improve. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 2:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden huge BA.2.86 look.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Complete: 1,180,288 – 1,180,183 = 105 (105 * 365 = 38,325 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 26:

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

GDP: “United States GDP Progress Charge” [Trading Economics]. “The US economic system expanded an annualized 4.9% within the third quarter of 2023, essentially the most for the reason that final quarter of 2021, above market forecasts of 4.3% and a 2.1% growth in Q2, the advance estimate confirmed.” • Commentary:

No contradiction between huge capital focus and dealing class immiseration.

Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 10,000 to 210,000 on the week ending October twenty first, above market expectations of 208,000. Regardless of rising above the market’s median forecast, the consequence remained comparatively near the nine-month low from the earlier week to protect proof that the US labor market is at traditionally tight ranges, aligned with the Federal Reserve’s stance that rates of interest are more likely to be held larger for an extended interval.”

Manufacturing: “United States Sturdy Items Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured sturdy items in america surged by 4.7% month-over-month in September 2023, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in August and considerably surpassing market expectations of a 1.7% rise. This marked essentially the most substantial month-to-month improve in sturdy items orders since July 2020, primarily pushed by robust demand for transportation gear.”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas Metropolis Fed’s Manufacturing Manufacturing index improved to -8 from -13 the earlier month, however marking the second consecutive month in detrimental territory. Sturdy items manufacturing noticed a extra substantial decline in comparison with nondurable items, however each sectors contracted on the similar price because the earlier month.”

* * *

Manufacturing: “Spirit Air Says Pratt Engine Concern to Floor Jets, Hamper Progress” [Bloomberg]. “Spirit Airways Inc. mentioned manufacturing issues with engines made by Pratt & Whitney will floor a mean of 26 of its Airbus SE A320neo plane subsequent 12 months, slowing the service’s progress to the mid-single digits or much less.” • We used to have the ability to construct airplanes. What the hell occurred?

* * *

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 25 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 29 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 29 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 26 at 1:51:26 PM ET.

Video games

“Lego’s New Dune Set With a Loooooong Baron Harkonnen Minifig” [Kottke.org]. “it’s popping out in February and the primary construct is a 1369-piece mannequin of the Atreides Royal Ornithopter with “fold-out, flappable wings, deployable touchdown gear and a gap cockpit”. Baron Harkooooooooooooonnen. I can’t cease! I, uh, could have pre-ordered this the second I noticed it.”

The Gallery

Take out the illustration and also you’ve acquired Jackson Pollack:

The Screening Room

Foreshadowing (1):

The foreshadowed (2):

Sure, I checked the unique.

Zeitgeist Watch

Yikes:

Information of the Wired

“Operating the “Reflections on Trusting Belief” Compiler” [Russ Cox]. “The backdoor was observed as a result of the compiler acquired one byte bigger every time it compiled itself. A couple of decade in the past, Ken informed me that it was an additional NUL byte added to a string every time, “only a bug.” We are able to see which string fixed it will need to have been (nihstr), however the model we simply constructed doesn’t have that bug—Ken says he didn’t save the buggy model. An fascinating recreation can be to attempt to reconstruct essentially the most believable diff that reintroduces the bug.” • Annotated model of Ken Thompson’s C code. Maybe some reader who is aware of The Nice Runes can remark….

“The World’s Writing Techniques” [World’s Writing Systems]. We’re nonetheless inventing new writing programs within the twenty first century!

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From wol:

wol writes: “We crammed in a failed runoff pond and let it return to nature. A welcome result’s swamp fleabane (Pluchea carolinensis?). We’re thrilled that deer have been avoiding it, as right here it’s tough to seek out crops for pollinators that deer gained’t eat. I haven’t but been capable of establish the bees or wasps with black and yellow striped abs and cobalt blue wings that crowd the blooms.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

If you happen to hate PayPal, you may electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on methods to ship a test. Thanks!

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