By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Music of the Day
Frequent Nightingale (golzii), Ile River Delta–Zheltorangy Poplars; Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Capitol Seizure
Hmm:
An individual is disqualified from “Workplace beneath the US” for participating in an revolt or riot towards “the Structure of the US,” NOT for participating in an revolt or riot towards “the US” or “the authority of the US
— @judgeluttig (@judgeluttig) November 4, 2023
And:
Sadly, the events and attorneys difficult the previous president’s qualification don’t seem to understand the essential distinction both, as a result of they’re making an attempt to determine that the previous president did incite a violent revolt on the Capitol on January 6.
— @judgeluttig (@judgeluttig) November 4, 2023
And:
effort, plan, and try and overturn the 2020 presidential election in an effort to stay in energy past the constitutionally prescribed four-year time period within the Structure’s Govt Vesting Clause is the quintessential “riot towards the Structure of the US.”
— @judgeluttig (@judgeluttig) November 4, 2023
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * * “Republican debate tonight: Trump skips third presidential face-off in Miami with DeSantis and Haley set for showdown” [Daily Mail]. “Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are set for a showdown on the third Republican presidential major debate on Wednesday night time in Miami. They’re each hoping to finish the night time as the principle challenger to Donald Trump, who’s main by 40 factors in some polls within the race to be the GOP nominee in 2024. DeSantis is making an attempt to kickstart his marketing campaign on a stage in his dwelling state whereas former South Carolina governor Haley has seen a surge within the polls, elevating her to second place in key states. The previous South Carolina governor is predicted to go after DeSantis on all the things from his coverage on fracking as to whether he wears lifts in his sneakers to make himself look taller. DeSantis, in the meantime, is seeking to construct momentum after Governor Kim Reynolds endorsed him within the essential major state of Iowa. Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will be a part of them on stage in a narrower area of simply 5 candidates. Once more, Trump has opted to skip the talk and maintain his personal rally simply half-hour down the street. However will the Republican rivals be capable to keep away from his shadow with two months till the primary major?
“The Third Republican Debate May Be Brutal” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “So this can be a group of candidates with little or nothing to lose, every of them desperately making an attempt to grow to be the one which challenges the front-runner. With Trump absent as soon as once more, it’s a recipe for intramural carnage.”
* * * “I Don’t Consider This Weekend’s Scary Ballot Numbers” [Charles Pierce, Esquire]. On the New York Instances ballot: “Fairly merely, I don’t consider a single a kind of numbers. [Black voters registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump] is the final one, though I feel that sentence in regards to the male-female break up may be very mushy, Dobbs being nonetheless alive and properly as a problem, and with a theocratic fetus-fondler working the Home of Representatives, it’s prone to keep that approach. I don’t consider that the previous president* will get 22 p.c of the Black vote. I’d sooner consider he’d get 22 p.c of the votes from pixies, elves, and the Tuatha de Denaan… There’s by no means been an election extra clouded by the unknown than this one is. There are every kind of imprecise shadows dancing within the mist. You may’t bounce at each one among them.” • Honest sufficient!s
“5 takeaways from new polls that reveal Biden’s challenges and Trump’s potential victory path” [CNN]. “The topline of a brand new CNN/SSRS survey of registered voters printed Tuesday reveals ex-President Donald Trump main Biden 49% to 45%, which is dangerous sufficient for the president. However a deep dive into the info reveals alarming challenges for Biden and bolsters the impression that regardless of the mayhem and mismanagement of Trump’s first time period, the GOP front-runner has a powerful probability at a second. The brand new ballot reveals deep public discontent with Biden’s job efficiency at a time when his financial optimism is failing to attach with a disgruntled nation weary of excessive costs. The survey exposes cracks in Biden’s multiethnic Democratic coalition and a insecurity in his management in a war-torn world. Most damagingly, the info present that only a quarter of People consider he has the stamina and sharpness to function president. This survey follows New York Instances/Siena Faculty polling over the weekend that present vital leads for Trump in many of the swing states prone to determine the 2024 election. That triggered one other spherical of agonizing amongst Democrats over whether or not Biden ought to have handed on a run for a second time period – even when no reasonable challenger for the nomination has emerged in a brand new era of the occasion.”
* * * “Glenn Youngkin STUNNED in Virginia as Democrats flip Home and retain Senate management: Republican touted as White Home candidate suffers crushing blow on dwelling turf – as abortion rights take heart stage at poll field” [Daily Mail]. “Whereas Republican donors have been urging Youngkin to make a late entry into the 2024 presidential race, the first-term governor mentioned he needed to achieve management of the Basic Meeting first – vowing to push by a 15-week abortion ban. Virginia’s voters rejected that, with Democrats estimated to win no less than 21 state Senate seats, retaining their majority, and 51 seats within the Home of Delegates, gaining management from Republicans… It’s unlikely Youngkin will be a part of the race now, as he doesn’t have wins at his again. He additionally missed the submitting deadline to seem on the New Hampshire major poll and wouldn’t have appeared in three GOP debates.” • Whoopsie.
* * * “Ballot: California voters more and more disapprove of Gavin Newsom’s efficiency as governor” [Sacramento Bee]. “Gov. Gavin Newsom’s approval score amongst California voters has sunk to its lowest stage on document, with almost half disapproving of his efficiency, in line with a brand new ballot from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Research. The survey, launched Tuesday in collaboration with the Los Angeles Instances, appears to point that whereas Newsom focuses on elevating his nationwide profile and launching varied political ventures outdoors of California, help inside the state wanes. In response to the ballot, 49% of registered voters disapprove of his efficiency as governor. His approval score of 44% within the late October ballot marked an 11-point drop from February when it was at 55%.”
* * * FL: “A suppose tank funded by a far-right billionaire wrote a invoice to weaken child-labor legal guidelines in Florida, information present” [Seeking Rents]. “A conservative suppose tank funded by a far-right billionaire wrote a controversial new invoice in Florida that may weaken the state’s child-labor legal guidelines, in line with information obtained by Extra Excellent Union. The information present that representatives for the Basis for Authorities Accountability wrote the unique draft of the Florida laws, which might enable employers within the state to make 16- and 17-year-old youngsters work the identical schedules as adults — together with in a single day shifts on faculty nights. ‘Connected is draft language on the challenge that Rep. Chaney expressed curiosity in to FGA,’ a lobbyist for the FGA’s advocacy arm wrote in an Aug. 28 e mail to an aide to Rep. Linda Chaney, a Republican legislator from St. Pete Seashore, which Extra Excellent Union obtained by a public-records request.’” • Sure, “freedom” is one other a kind of phrases…
GA: “AJC ballot reveals Georgia Democratic rift over Israel” [Atlanta Journal-Constitution]. “Practically 40% of Democrats say supporting Israel shouldn’t be a staple of U.S. international coverage, in contrast with solely 10% of Republicans and one-third of independents who maintain that view. The divide is extra distinct amongst youthful, extra numerous and poorer voters. About half of voters beneath 30 and a slim majority of those that make lower than $25,000 say supporting Israel will not be within the nationwide curiosity. And 41% of Black voters — lengthy the bottom of Democratic help in Georgia — additionally say they consider backing Israel isn’t within the nationwide curiosity. The divide is threatening to fray the coalition that fueled Biden’s slender 2020 victory over Donald Trump.”
ME: “Maine will print tribal obligations together with the remainder of the state Structure” [Bangor Daily News]. “Maine’s historic treaty obligations to tribes shall be printed alongside different components of the state Structure after voters backed Query 6 in Tuesday’s election. The sure aspect of Query 6 had 73 p.c of votes to 27 p.c for the no aspect when the Bangor Each day Information and Resolution Desk HQ known as the race at 9:18 p.m. Tuesday. It was a key a part of the tribal-rights push earlier than the Legislature this yr, though it’s extra of a symbolic measure as a result of the obligations have remained a part of the Structure. Voters handed the change regardless of Gov. Janet Mills vociferously opposing it in March.”
OH: “Ohio voters enshrine abortion entry in structure in newest statewide win for reproductive rights” [Associated Press]. ” Ohio voters permitted a constitutional modification on Tuesday that ensures entry to abortion and different types of reproductive well being care, the most recent victory for abortion rights supporters for the reason that U.S. Supreme Court docket overturned Roe v. Wade final yr.” • It’s mind-blowing to see Nationwide Democrats campaigning orr state victories when for many years they didn’t do squat — which is why Dobbs occurred within the first place.
PA: “Dan McCaffery’s triumph within the Pa. Supreme Court docket race extends Democrats’ majority” [Philadelphia Inquirer]. “Democrat Dan McCaffery was elected to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court docket on Tuesday, extending the Democrats’ majority on the state’s highest courtroom and reinforcing the truth that abortion rights and the integrity of elections are high of thoughts for Pennsylvania voters. Abortion and election points took heart stage within the costly and contentious showdown between the candidates. Exterior teams and the candidates’ campaigns spent greater than $20 million to win the open seat, which was the highest statewide race on the poll this fall.”
VA: “Virginia Democrats block GOP bid to take full management of state authorities” [NBC]. “Virginia voters have rejected Republican efforts to take full management of the state’s authorities, holding Democrats in energy within the Legislature as a counterweight to GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin and conservative coverage proposals that embrace a 15-week abortion ban. Democrats stored their majority within the state Senate and flipped the state Home, The Related Press projected.”
Obama Legacy
“Obama warns Democrats towards being too ‘self-righteous’ towards political foes: ‘Shedding technique’” [FOX]. “‘A shedding technique for us, is once we are so insistent on our purity, once we are so self-righteous about positions, that we will’t see these people,’ Obama mentioned of political adversaries. ‘After we’re speaking all the way down to them or our common angle is that ‘we’re gonna persuade you’ on how fallacious you’re.” ‘I’ve not seen that work but,’ he added. Obama additionally mentioned that Democrats weren’t, for almost all of contemporary historical past, ‘on the correct aspect’ of tolerance. ‘It’s not as if your entire historical past of this nation Democrats have been on the correct aspect of this factor,’ he mentioned. ‘Democrats, for many of contemporary historical past, up till the Civil Rights laws have been anti-democratic and terrorized individuals and killed them for making an attempt to train their democracy.’ ‘So we don’t have clear palms,’ Obama continued.” • I suppose I agree with the half about Democrats not having clear palms. I don’t see the place that is going for 2024, until the concept is that Biden doesn’t embrace complexity or some such.
“Why Progressives Ought to Heed Obama’s Name on Israel/Palestine” [Newsweek]. “Not like what many self-righteous activists appear to suppose, insisting in your ethical superiority and continuously evaluating your self to hallowed actions of the previous, from civil rights wrestle within the U.S. to anti-Apartheid struggle in South Africa, doesn’t deliver change to the true world. Obama acknowledged this when he mentioned, ‘In the event you genuinely need to change this, you bought to determine methods to hearken to somebody on the opposite aspect and never dismiss it.’” • Effectively, there’s the Lincoln Mission, however is Obama actually going to endorse Dean Phillips?
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Covid is Airborne
#DavosSafe however within the faculties:
Would you are feeling otherwise about Covid being ‘over’ in case you knew that individuals with 18k to spend on their child’s tuition are sending their children to a faculty with each day molecular testing, masks necessities, clear air & extra? As a result of it is taking place:https://t.co/ZpAvlFopub
— lizwhatsherface.bsky (@RealGayArbys) November 7, 2023
A profitable program:
Utilizing a multilayered method:
Air flow specifically:
All the things we’ve been screaming within the void about for years. It really works! And don’t let hospitals get away with saying “Dishevelled Blues” are sufficient!
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.
* * *
Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 6:
Lambert right here: Circumstances up, simply in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).
Regional knowledge:
In every single place!
NOTE I’m so glad to see that Biobot is again. I confess that I’ve not made a severe comparability of Biobot’s pattern units pre- and post-Verily. Nor to my data has anybody. Readers?
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services lower by directors of ailing intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 4:
Lambert right here: Nonetheless flattening. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 8:
A particular lower. Must be up in two weeks, although! (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. October 28:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 6:
-1.4%. However bouncing round. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)
From Cleveland Clinic, November 4:
Lambert right here: Slight enhance. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 16:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:
Sudden large BA.2.86 look. This variant chart has not been up to date, which makes me marvel if CDC is gaming the info, and BA.2.86 is worse than we expect.
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: Dunno why no updates. I’ll need to drop this one, with nice reluctance; I like my sources non-CDC.
Deaths
Whole: 1,181,620 – 1,181,548 = 72 (72 * 365 = 26,280 deaths per yr, at present’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, November 8:
Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at present.
At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 41 Worry (earlier shut: 40 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 32 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 8 at 1:45:31 PM ET.
Information of the Wired
“Seeing like a Financial institution” [Bits About Money]. Financial institution programs are an fascinating mixture of designed and unintentional. They accrete like sedimentary layers. A selected pressure which impacts banks greater than most establishments is that the banking business has undergone a long time of consolidation. When banks merge, one financial institution doesn’t merely eat the opposite and digest its steadiness sheet and folks. They find yourself working their programs in parallel for years whereas understanding an integration plan. That plan will, virtually inevitably, trigger one of many programs to principally “win” and the opposite system to principally “lose”, however for enterprise causes, one thing of the loser shall be retained indefinitely. It now must be grafted onto the winner, regardless of ceaselessly being itself a long time old-fashioned, having its personal assortment of grafted acquirees partially hooked up to it, and needing skilled enter from people who find themselves not with the agency.” • Effectively price a learn…
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are fantastic! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From AM:
AM writes: “Unsure what this barely creepy trying plant is, nevertheless it’s positively not one thing I’d count on to see in Manhattan, within the Hudson River Park simply off the West Facet Freeway close to Desbrosses Road. The bugs appear to love it although!!”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In the event you hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on methods to ship a verify. Thanks!
